Swaraj Report

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  • Topic: Time series, Forecasting, Autocorrelation
  • Pages : 69 (23016 words )
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  • Published : May 8, 2013
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SALES FORECASTING FOR TRACTOR INDUSTRY 2010 – 2011 IN INDIA

Summer Internship Report
Presented to
UBS

On
July 29, 2009

In
Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Two Year Post Graduate Degree in Master of Business Administration (International Business)

Project guide: Submitted by:
Mr. Gagandeep KauraSanjeev Bhadiar
Marketing ManagerMBA - IB
SWARAJ DIVISION
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD.

UNIVERSITY BUSINESS SCHOOL
PANJAB UNIVERSITY

CERTIFICATE OF APPROVAL

The following Summer Internship Reports titled “Sales forecasting for tractor industry 2010 -2011 in India” are hereby approved as a certified study in management carried out and presented in a manner satisfactory to warrant acceptance as a prerequisite for the award of Masters of Business Administration (MBA) degree in International Business for which it has been submitted. It is understood that by this approval the undersigned do not necessarily endorse or approve any statement made, opinion expressed or conclusion drawn therein but approve the Summer Internship Report only for the purpose it is submitted.

Organizational Guide
Signature…………………………………..
Name……………………………………….Designation………………………………..Address…………………………………….………………………………………………
……………………………………………… ……………………………………………… Tel. No…………………………………….. E-mail ……………………………………...

Acknowledgement

Acknowledgement is not only a ritual but also an expression of indebtedness to all those who helped in the completion of the project.

I am thankful to SWARAJ DIVISION (Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.), where I got the golden opportunity to undertake this summer’s project. The help, assistance and guidance that I received during the course of this project will be earnestly cherished in times to come.

I am extremely grateful to Mr. Gagandeep Kaura, Marketing manager, who carved out such a challenging job for me and was a guiding beacon all the way long.

I was fortunate to be placed under the able guidance of Mr Gautam and the entire organization which took keen interest in the project, extended timely help, cooperation, ideas and constructive criticism that helped me to complete the project to the best of my ability in the available time frame.

Dated: 10th JULY 2010Sanjeev Bhadiar
MBA IBUniversity Business School

TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY7
1) OVERVIEW8
1.1)Industry Trends by Region11
1.2)Industry Trends by Tractor Horse Power (HP)12
1.3)Some Long-Term Demand Drivers for the Industry13
1.4)Outlook14
1.5)Structure of Indian Tractor Industry14
1.6)Region-wise Market Shares of Various Players15
2)COMPANY PROFILE17
2.1)Group Infrastructure19
2.2)Tractor Portfolio20
3)INTRODUCTION TO FORECASTING23
3.1)Forecasting Steps24
3.2)Computer Forecasting Packages26
3.3)Exploring Data Patterns and Choosing a Forecasting Technique27
3.3.1)Exploring Time Series Data Patterns27
3.3.2)Exploring Data Patterns with Autocorrelation Analysis28
3.4)A White Noise Model29
3.5)The Sampling Distribution of Autocorrelation29
3.5.1)Portmanteau Test30
3.6)The Partial Autocorrelation Coefficient31
3.7)Choosing a Forecasting Technique32
4)ARIMA METHODOLOGY34
4.1)Box-Jenkins Methodology34
4.1.1)Basic Assumption of Box-Jenkins36
4.2)Autoregressive Model36
4.3)Moving Average Model37
4.4)Autoregressive Moving Average Models38
4.5)Removing Non-Stationary...
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