Seaborne Energy Business 2030

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UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE

SCHOOL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

SEMESTER 2

2012/13

MODULE: MAR8029 MARINE TRANSPORT AND ECONOMICS

THE SEABORNE ENERGY TRANSPORT BUSINESS IN 2030

LECTURER: PROFESSOR IAN L. BUXTON

ARRYO KHRISNA HARMAN - 120365887

1. CURRENT SITUATION OVERVIEW
Energy commodity trade play a very important role in the world seaborne trade. There are two most significant commodities in the seaborne energy transport business that currently have major contribution to the world seaborne trade, which are crude oil and coal. BP (2012) stated that in 2011 global oil consumption has increased 0.7 per cent to reach 88 million BOPD. Despite the fact that the consumption is not picturing a significant amount of growth, according to UNCTAD (2012), in the same period crude oil load capacity reached 1.8 billion tons and has an account for approximately one third of the total world seaborne trade. Meanwhile, global consumption of coal has increased significantly in the same period. As BP (2012) mentioned in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012, coal has grew by 5.3 per cent, which is the only fossil fuel that increased above the average and the fastest growing energy outside renewable energy. Coal trade across countries are also illustrated remarkable growth. Between year 1999 and 2011 in tonne mile unit coal trade has risen 67 per cent to a number of 2196 tonne miles (UNCTAD, 2012). Furthermore, another energy source that has a very promising prospect to the world seaborne trade is LNG. LNG is the third sources of energy most consumed globally, after oil and coal. This type of energy has shown a considerable escalation in the last 10 years. Since 2000, LNG consumption has grown by over 30 per cent (BP, 2012). Likewise, from 1999 to 2011, LNG seaborne trade has escalated way more significant, which reach the number of 258 per cent (UNCTAD, 2012). Lastly, the other prospectus energy that possibly able to provide sustainability to the world energy and could play a greater role in the future is non fossil fuel energy especially renewable energy. Currently, this type of energy has an account of 2.1 per cent of world energy consumption, which has risen from 0.7 per cent in 2001 (BP, 2012). In present time, the contribution of this energy may not be very significant to world seaborne energy trade but with the steady growth and declining of oil reserves as the main sources of energy, renewable energy is reckoned to contribute more in the future and it might affected to the world seaborne energy trade. With all the facts aforementioned, it is important to generate a projection on how the energy consumption and production proportion is distributed in the future. Since seaborne transport business is a derives demand, it is essential to predict the development of the commodity, in this case is energy, in order to have a general picture of the energy seaborne transport business in the future. It is therefore, this essay will examine the development of this issue, which will focus on crude oil, coal, LNG, and renewable energy transport business especially in the year of 2030.

2. GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION 2030
Demand of energy production that leads to energy transportation is mainly affected by the amount of its consumption. According to BP (2012) energy consumption driven by two main aspects that are population and income (GDP). In the year 2030, world population is projected to grow by 1.4 billion, which is 0.9 per cent per annum. Growth of GDP are also display a similar trends. Driven by low and medium income economies, the growth in the next 20 years is projected to accelerate reach the number of 3.7 per cent, raising from 3.2 per cent in the 1990-2010 period. However, increase in population and GDP growth is not necessarily surge the primary energy consumption. As expressed in BP Energy Outlook 2030 (BP, 2012), primary energy consumption growth from 2010 to 2030, which...
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