World in 2050

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Fossil motor fuels around 2050
Kjell Aleklett
Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University, Sweden
Abstract of paper to be presented at theRoyal Swedish Academy of Sciences international energy symposium, Energy2050, to be held on 19-20 October 2009 Fossil fuels are finite resources. In various regions of the world we see that production reached a maximum and then declined. Just now we consume around 85 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d) or 31 billion barrels per year. If we compare this with BP’s estimate of the world’s reserves of 1240 billion barrels this is equivalent to constant consumption at today’s level for 40 years, i.e. until 2050. A constant level of global oil production is not realistic due to the physical parameters of oilfields. Instead, we can expect a future maximum of production, Peak Oil, followed by declining production. Today, oil is the raw material for the fuel for aircraft, passenger cars, busses, trucks, ships etc. For the last 40 years the oil requirements of our transportation modes have steady increased. During the coming 40 years the amounts of fossil fuels used for transport must be decreased. The political will for this will be tested in Copenhagen later this year, but more important is that limited oil resources will limit the production of oil. Peak Oil will be the politicians’ best friend when it comes to reducing CO2 emissions. The IPCC emission scenarios are based on incorrect assumptions of fossil fuel resources and are, therefore, exaggerated. Future oil production can be divided into six fractions; 1) crude oil from currently producing fields, 2) crude oil from fields yet to be developed, 3) crude oil from fields yet to be found, 4) crude oil from enhanced recovery, 5) non-conventional oil production and finally 6) natural gas liquids. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) publication World Energy Outlook 2008 these will constitute a total of 106 mb/d in the year 2030, an increase of more than 20 mb/d...
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