How Did Hubbert Identify The Indicators Of Scarcity
In 1956 M King Hubbert predicted that oil production would reach a peak level of production and then production would decline as oil became increasingly scarce. How could we tell if oil was becoming scarce and is there evidence that Hubbert was right?
This essay will first attempt to identify the indicators of scarcity and then will analyse the debate surrounding Hubbert’s theory of Peak Oil (1956) and whether scarcity is the sole reason for production levels of oil peaking.
Introduction
M. King Hubbert predicted that oil production in the United States (US) would peak around 1970 and that the world production would peak in 2000. In the words of Jeremy Rifkin: [“Hubbart] argued that oil production starts at zero, rises, peaks when half the estimated ultimately recoverable oil is produced, and then falls, all along a classic bell-shaped curve.” His theories proved to be extremely accurate for US production as it peaked in 1971 (Figure 1), however with regards to world production, it is clear to see (Figure 2) that production has not been consistent with Hubbert’s Peak Theory as it is currently on the rise. This has, consequently, spurred much discussion and examination surrounding the integral factors that affect oil production.
Indicators of …show more content…
technological progress and exploration), almost any pattern involving the traditional economic indicators might be encountered as the economy progresses along its equilibrium depletion path. Thus, it is evident that it is not plausible to rely on any set of market indicators to measure the status of exhaustible resources. This conclusion echoes the view of Cleveland and Stern (1999), who suggests, “…In order to develop more effective forecasts of future resource scarcity we need to look beyond the indicators to the production technologies, natural resource bases, and market structures that influence the
This essay will first attempt to identify the indicators of scarcity and then will analyse the debate surrounding Hubbert’s theory of Peak Oil (1956) and whether scarcity is the sole reason for production levels of oil peaking.
Introduction
M. King Hubbert predicted that oil production in the United States (US) would peak around 1970 and that the world production would peak in 2000. In the words of Jeremy Rifkin: [“Hubbart] argued that oil production starts at zero, rises, peaks when half the estimated ultimately recoverable oil is produced, and then falls, all along a classic bell-shaped curve.” His theories proved to be extremely accurate for US production as it peaked in 1971 (Figure 1), however with regards to world production, it is clear to see (Figure 2) that production has not been consistent with Hubbert’s Peak Theory as it is currently on the rise. This has, consequently, spurred much discussion and examination surrounding the integral factors that affect oil production.
Indicators of …show more content…
technological progress and exploration), almost any pattern involving the traditional economic indicators might be encountered as the economy progresses along its equilibrium depletion path. Thus, it is evident that it is not plausible to rely on any set of market indicators to measure the status of exhaustible resources. This conclusion echoes the view of Cleveland and Stern (1999), who suggests, “…In order to develop more effective forecasts of future resource scarcity we need to look beyond the indicators to the production technologies, natural resource bases, and market structures that influence the