With the critical paths shown for these three possibilities, I will address the company’s desire to finish the warehouse expansion in 40 weeks. To do this, I used the expected time formula, the variance formula, standard variance and the “z score.” In the formulas below, the optimistic outlook is “a”, the most likely is “m”, and the pessimistic is “b,” ℴ is standard variance and the z score is used to find the percentage the warehouse is able to be built in 40 weeks. Additionally, the actual expected time is 43 weeks, shown below is the critical path broken into expected time versus the first three options above.
With the 10.38% probability of the project’s ability to be finished in 40 weeks, it is highly recommended to allow at least another two weeks to allow the project to be completed with fewer errors. However, if it is not feasible to allow this extra time for the expansion the following two clauses below will further define the possibilities available to increase the probability of earlier completion and the additional costs it would take to undergo those options.
2. To complete the expansion in 40 weeks with an 80% probability of success, the activities would need to have a completion time of 38 weeks. This is given the same variance score and times for the schedules above. However, presently it is unable to conclude five weeks earlier without an increase in funding, workers and supplies.
3. Below is a revised activity schedule based...