1. Although the company desires the warehouse expansion completed within 40 weeks, there is only a 10.38% capability to achieve that goal. Laid out below are the networks drawn out and then the critical path is laid out below it for the optimistic outlook on completion time, the most likely outlook and then the pessimistic outlook for the project to be completed. As seen, the best estimated finish time is 28 weeks, most likely is 42 weeks, and the pessimistic is 66 weeks for the project to be complete.
With the critical paths shown for these three possibilities, I will address the company’s desire to finish the warehouse expansion in 40 weeks. To do this, I used the expected time formula, the variance formula, standard variance and the “z score.” In the formulas below, the optimistic outlook is “a”, the most likely is “m”, and the pessimistic is “b,” ℴ is standard variance and the z score is used to find the percentage the warehouse is able to be built in 40 weeks. Additionally, the actual expected time is 43 weeks, shown below is the critical path broken into expected time versus the first three options above.
With the 10.38% probability of the project’s ability to be finished in 40 weeks, it is highly recommended to allow at least another two weeks to allow the project to be completed with fewer errors. However, if it is not feasible to allow this extra time for the expansion the following two clauses below will further define the possibilities available to increase the probability of earlier completion and the additional costs it would take to undergo those options.
2. To complete the expansion in 40 weeks with an 80% probability of success, the activities would need to have a completion time of 38 weeks. This is given the same variance score and times for the schedules above. However, presently it is unable to conclude five weeks earlier without an increase in funding, workers and supplies.
3. Below is a revised activity schedule based...
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