Life and tourism in the year 2050
Department of Hospitality Management, University of Central Florida, P.O. Box 161400, Orlando, FL 32816-1400, USA
Abstract This article is an essay that represents the author's personal vision of life and the state of the tourism industry in the year 2050. It describes the major expected developments in the areas of environment, demographics, economy and business, lifestyle and values, politics, housing, education, entertainment, shopping, and emerging technologies. It also speci"es the likely tourism evolution in arrivals and receipts, tourist attractions, transportation modes, and 1999 Published by Elsevier Science management of hospitality and tourism enterprises. Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Future; Year 2050; Tourism forecasting; Futurism
1. Predicting the future Sam Goldwyn, a prominent Hollywood "lm producer who died in 1974 was reported to have advised his friends and colleagues to `never make forecasts, especially about the futurea. This being a sound advice, the following essay is not an attempt to forecast the future, but a sincere desire to share my vision of the future with the community of scholars and practitioners in the tourism and hospitality "eld. To this end I have been in#uenced by the doctrine of the French poet Antoine De SaintExupery who believed that `our task is not to foresee the future but to enable ita (The H Princeton Language Institute, 1993:189) and by the axiom of Prognostikos (1999) which states that `the best way to envision the future is to create ita. By stating this vision in the form of desired outcomes, it is my hope that numerous others will join me in making this future happen. * Tel.: #1-407-823-6202; fax: #1-407-823-5696. E-mail address: email@example.com (A. Pizam) 0278-4319/99/$ - see front matter 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 2 7 8 - 4 3 1 9 ( 9 9 ) 0 0 0 4 1 - 9
A. Pizam / Hospitality Management 18 (1999) 331}343
2. The vision This vision of the future is an optimistic one. It is based on the assumption that humanity has the wisdom and foresight to overcome its present problems and through the application of new technological innovations and the introduction of social and political changes will be able to devise a better future. This future is one in which the global population reaches a peak and then gradually declines. A future in which there are still great disparities between the `havesa and `have-notsa, but these are declining. A future in which democratic forms of government and the rule of law are nearly universal and environmental conditions have signi"cantly improved.
3. Life in the year 2050 Life in the year 2050 will be shaped by the environmental, demographic, economic, social, political and technological developments that will occur between now and the mid 21st century. Following is a detailed analysis of these occurrences and their resultant e!ects.
3.1. The environment By the beginning of the 21st century the world would have experienced a sharp increase in energy use, a rapid exhaustion of fossil fuels, an accelerated global warming, increased pollution and pollution related diseases, garbage over#ow (shortage of land"lls) and severe water scarcity in numerous subcontinent countries. To solve these problems, by the mid 21st century the majority of countries would have put in place a combination of the following measures: 1. Mandatory energy conservation measures in all commercial enterprises (i.e., electricity) and on all forms of power generating and transportation equipment. 2. Adoption of alternative sources of energy, such as: (a) Solar heating and cooling. Energy is collected using #at plate or concentrating systems to interface to domestic water heating, space heating, and sometimes commercial process heating applications. Temperatures involved are generally no more than several...