Scientific method states that any given hypothesis must be tested and predictions that it makes must be valid in order to be considered a theory. “Data tests hypothetical concepts and predictions. If they don’t hold up, then the hypothesis requires modification.” (Gerhard12) Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) does not meet these criteria.
The AGW hypothesis states that temperature increases are the result of CO2 increases produced from burning fossil fuels. (Hansen) James Hansen of NASA Goddard Space Institute of space studies first presented this hypothesis to congress in 1988. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1989. It was set up by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. AGW was popularized in 2006 by Al Gore’s documentary An Inconvenient truth.
The basis of the AGW is that CO2 is a greenhouse gas that causes temperatures to increase globally, and that these increasing CO2 levels will eventually make the earth uninhabitable. CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from 285 ppm in pre-industrial times to present day 385 ppm. In Geologic time CO2 levels have been over 7000ppm and the earth had the same temperature as we have today (fig 1.) If those high levels of CO2 did not cause temperature to rise then, why should it rise now?
Figure 1 [pic] (Monckton9)
Temperatures have been fluctuating in the last 100 years and have increased in the last 30. AGW alarmists see this causing the glaciers to melt, the polar bears to die, and see levels to rise. All of this is based on computer models, which keep many of the variables constant and only show an increase in CO2. Variation in sun temperature is not used in the models because they are poorly understood. “More research to investigate the effects of solar behavior on climate is needed before the magnitude of solar effects on climate can be stated with certainty.” (Climate Change 20007, the Fourth Assessment Report)
In 1988 James Hansen predicted that temperatures would increase rapidly in the next 20 years due to CO2 increase (Figure 2). The zero point of his prediction was 1984. In actuality, since 1984 the temperature has only gone up, at the most, .2 degrees (Figure 3) based on satellite data. This is well below the predictions made by James Hansen. Again, in 2006 Hansen made future predictions (figure 4) of temperature increase. But since 2001 temperatures have been decreasing (figure 5). Figure 6 is a graph showing all three of the predictions of James Hansen compared with the temperature if it had stayed constant and with the actual temperature now, we are no where near the predictions. None of the temperature data that has been taken coincides with his predictions; therefore his hypothesis is not supported and his models must be changed before they are used in the media.
(“Hansen’s 1988 projections.”)
(“RSS Global Temperature for June 09, also down”)
(Hansen 2006 temperature comparison.jpg)
“Supporting evidence” for AGW
When typing in “Global Warming Facts” into Google the first link that pops up is a National Geographic News article called “Global Warming Fast Facts.” In this article they make many statements about global warming, all which are untrue and can be torn down by real data.
One “fact” that has been used to support they anthropogenic global warming in the article states, “Arctic ice is rapidly disappearing, and the region may have its first completely ice-free summer by 2040.” (“Global Warming Fast Facts”) Arctic ice has been melting...