=0.50(83000) + 0.30(67000) + 0.15(64000) + 0.05(48000) = 41‚500 + 20‚100 + 9‚600 + 2‚400 = $73‚600 $73‚600 is the forecast for 2013 Q2. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.6 on actual values: a) If sales are $45‚000 and $50‚000 for 2010 and 2011‚ what would you forecast for 2012? (The first forecast is equal to the actual value of the preceding year.) Actual values are 2010: $45‚000 2011:
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Choose one of the forecasting methods and explain the rationale behind using it in real life. I would choose to use the exponential smoothing forecast method. Exponential smoothing method is an average method that reacts more strongly to recent changes in demand than to more distant past data. Using this data will show how the forecast will react more strongly to immediate changes in the data. This is good to examine when dealing with seasonal patterns and trends that may be taking place. I would
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Demand Forecasting Problems Simple Regression a) RCB manufacturers black & white television sets for overseas markets. Annual exports in thousands of units are tabulated below for the past 6 years. Given the long term decline in exports‚ forecast the expected number of units to be exported next year. |Year |Exports |Year |Exports | |1 |33 |4 |26
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|Total | Problem 3: A firm uses simple exponential smoothing with [pic] to forecast demand. The forecast for the week of January 1 was 500 units whereas the actual demand turned out to be 450 units. Calculate the demand forecast for the week of January 8. Problem 4: Exponential smoothing is used to forecast automobile battery sales. Two value of [pic] are examined‚ [pic] and [pic] Evaluate the accuracy of each smoothing constant. Which is preferable? (Assume the forecast for
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accurate forecast possible so they can plan for the demands. There are forecasting tools that assist with making calculations to receive the best outcome by your company’s needs. The tools are moving average‚ weighted moving average and exponential smoothing. The moving average takes the total of actual demand for previous months then divides by the number of months added. The number of months that is used can be predefined such as using the previous three months. This is the simplest and easiest
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eightweek period have been 14‚ 9‚ 30‚ 22‚ 34‚ 12‚ 19‚ 23. a. Suppose that three-week moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for weeks 4 through 8. b. Suppose that exponential smoothing is used with a smoothing constant of α = 0.15. Find the exponential smoothing forecasts for weeks 4 through 8. c. Based on the MAD‚ which method did better? Solution: a. Week 4 5 6 7 8 b. and c. You may start ES forecast from week 1 or start ES forecast from week 4 using MA(3) forecast
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Transition Exponential Smoothing James W. Taylor Saïd Business School University of Oxford Journal of Forecasting‚ 2004‚ Vol. 23‚ pp. 385-394. Address for Correspondence: James W. Taylor Saïd Business School University of Oxford Park End Street Oxford OX1 1HP‚ UK Tel: +44 (0)1865 288927 Fax: +44 (0)1865 288805 Email: james.taylor@sbs.ox.ac.uk Smooth Transition Exponential Smoothing SMOOTH TRANSITION EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Abstract Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow a smoothing parameter
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univariate forecast this depends only on Xn‚ Xn-1‚…… In simple exponential smoothing‚ the one-step-ahead predictor can be written in the recurrence form Xt(1)= Lt+ Tt+ It-p+1 Where the smoothing parameter‚ α‚ is usually constrained so that 0 < α <1. The Holt-Winters method (sometimes called the Winters method or seasonal exponential smoothing) generalizes this approach to deal with trend and seasonality. Let α‚ γ‚ δ denote three smoothing parameters and let p
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Classificatory smoothing of Income with Extraordinary Items - Summary Within this paper they talk about whether extraordinary items are used to smooth ordinary or operating income over time. The role of extraordinary items was never really looked at become separately and that is what they wanted to look at. They talk about how previously the focus was on net income after extraordinary items but that it is important to look at net income before extraordinary items also
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In mathematics‚ the exponential function is the function ex‚ where e is the number (approximately 2.718281828) such that the function ex is its own derivative.[1][2] The exponential function is used to model a relationship in which a constant change in the independent variable gives the same proportional change (i.e. percentage increase or decrease) in the dependent variable. The function is often written as exp(x)‚ especially when it is impractical to write the independent variable as a superscript
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