1. INTRODUCTION TO THE TERM PAPER
Forecasting relates to the management functions of planning, organizing and controlling. It is one of the key elements of operations management. Companies serve their customers and the society at large by producing various goods and services. The market need is continuously changing. In order to cope up with the changing demand companies must develop a good forecasting technique to determine the demand level For this term paper, five different products from different companies, selected from the fast moving consumer goods industry, were taken as the subject of study. The products selected are of different nature in the consumer industry, which made them ideal for the term paper. 1.3 OBJECTIVES
The broad objective of this paper is to identify the forecasting techniques used by companies in the fast moving consumer goods industry (FMCG). The specific objectives are:
To identify five products in the FMCG industry
To identify the when each organization do their forecasting, and for what period of time.
To identify the different quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques used by the companies.
To compare the forecasting techniques of the five products. 1.4 RATIONALE
Given the volatile nature of the Bangladeshi market, it is imperative for the FMCGs to have an exhaustive forecasting system. Since the attributes of different brands are different, it would be interesting and equally educative to analyse the forecasting techniques followed by these organizations. The report would also help entrepreneurs and prospective entrepreneurs to better understand how to forecast for different brands under different circumstances. 1.4 SCOPE
This paper aims to analyze the forecasting techniques followed by five major FMCG companies in Bangladesh. These brands include Nestle Bangladesh Limited, Reckitt Benkiser Bangladesh Limited, ACI Bangladesh Limited, Square Group, and Unilever Bangladesh Limited. Hence, this term paper can be viewed as a general overview of the forecasting techniques used by the companies in the FMCG industry. 1.5 METHODOLOGY
The research conducted in this report is of exploratory nature. Primary data was the only source of data for the paper. Data Collection
Data for this paper was found by taking interviews with the officials of the respective companies. 1.6 LIMITATIONS
The major limitation in this report was the reluctance of relevant sources to release information on the details of forecasting techniques. The report is based on the overview of the technique used for each product and not on the details of the method. 2. FORECASTING IN DIFFERENT COMPANIES
Advance Chemical Industries (ACI) Limited is one of the leading conglomerates in Bangladesh, with a multinational image. ACI is a Public Limited Company with a total number of 19,653 shareholders. ACI Consumer Brands was initiated in 1995 with two major brands of the company – ACI Aerosol and Savlon. These are two of the most prestigious products which are enjoying the leadership position in the market. The division started to take new businesses through off shore trading as well as local manufacturing. In this process ACI Consumer Brands launched many new products and also bonded with Joint Venture business relationships and attained international alliances with world renowned companies
ACI has very strong range of products in its Hygiene Product category. Savlon is almost an essential product in every home of this country; Savlon Liquid antiseptic, Savlon Antiseptic Cream, Savlon liquid Soap, Savlon Femme Sanitary Napkin and Savlon Family Protection Soap are some of the well known products under the brand name of Savlon.
Savlon Liquid Antiseptic is the highest selling antiseptics. It is used in minor burn, cut and abrasion. It has more than 75% market share of its category. Savlon Liquid Antiseptic has four pack sizes. They are: 56 ml, 112 ml, 500 ml,...
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