Climate and Air Quality-Driven Scenarios of Ozone and Aerosol Precursor Abatement

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environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 855–869

available at www.sciencedirect.com

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsci

Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement
Kristin Rypdal a, Nathan Rive a,*, Terje Berntsen a, Hilde Fagerli b, Zbigniew Klimont c, Torben K. Mideksa a, Jan S. Fuglestvedt a a CICERO, P.O. Box 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway met.no, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, N-0313 Oslo, Norway c International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria b article info
Published on line 16 September 2009 Keywords: Air pollutants Radiative forcing Mitigation Cost-effectiveness

abstract
In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO2, NOx, CH4, VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH4. While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO2, contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NOx and SO2 should be

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