Climate and Air Quality-Driven Scenarios of Ozone and Aerosol Precursor Abatement

Topics: Air pollution, Global warming, Smog Pages: 34 (10407 words) Published: August 27, 2013
environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 855–869

available at www.sciencedirect.com

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Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement Kristin Rypdal a, Nathan Rive a,*, Terje Berntsen a, Hilde Fagerli b, Zbigniew Klimont c, Torben K. Mideksa a, Jan S. Fuglestvedt a a

CICERO, P.O. Box 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway met.no, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, N-0313 Oslo, Norway c International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria b

article info
Published on line 16 September 2009 Keywords: Air pollutants Radiative forcing Mitigation Cost-effectiveness

abstract
In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO2, NOx, CH4, VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH4. While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO2, contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NOx and SO2 should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies. # 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1.

Introduction

Air pollutants contribute to a number of environmental and human health problems. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and methane (CH4) form ozone in the presence of sunlight (Crutzen, 1987; IPCC, 2007). This ozone contributes not only to premature deaths and loss of crop production (WHO, 2004), but also to global warming (e.g. Berntsen et al., 1997; IPCC, 2007). Sulphur dioxide (SO2), NOx and ammonia (NH3) cause acidification and euthrophication of natural ecosystems and in addition play a role in the

formation of secondary particulate matter (PM) which, along with primary PM have adverse effects on health (Holland et al., 2005). Furthermore, particulate matter emissions, specifically black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), affect the radiative forcing balance, respectively, contributing to the heating and cooling of the atmosphere (Forster et al., 2007). Until now abatement of these species has been driven by air quality and ecosystems protection targets. Emissions reductions of SO2, NOx, NMVOC and NH3 have been addressed internationally in the Gothenburg protocol of the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (UNECE, 1999) and the EU NEC Directive (EC, 2001). These regulations set emission

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +47 22858750; fax: +47 22858751. E-mail address: n.a.rive@cicero.uio.no (N. Rive). 1462-9011/$ – see front matter # 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2009.08.002

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environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 855–869

targets for 2010 and 2020, respectively, to reduce the impacts of acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone. Recently, the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (EC, 2005) also included the health effects of primary and secondary PM and proposed further reductions of PM and its precursors that will...
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