# Monte Carlo Analysis

**Topics:**Computer simulation, Monte Carlo method, Spreadsheet

**Pages:**3 (690 words)

**Published:**January 25, 2013

Oracle's Crystal Ball,

RiskDecision's Predict! Risk Controller

I really found two of the four solutions excellent.

1. Monte Carlo Simulation within Mocrosoft Excel

I really was amazed by by Monte Carlo Simulation that is available within the Excel Software. The cost of the book Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling by Wayne L Winston costs only $39.99 and includes a practice CD. This solution is outstanding and major companies utilize it such as General Motors, Proctor & Gamble and Eli Lilly. This Excel based solution is the most cost effective. However, the user has to learn and practice the various steps to get to the final results. The users have to learn the various formulas, such as =Rand(), Vlookup, COUNTIF, NORMINV(rand(),mu,sigma) for normal random variable, NORMINV(p, mu, sigma) for normal random varianve with a mean and a standard deviation. Finally, they have to learn the usage of the confidence interval for mean profit by using the formula listed below:

Mean Profit +- 1.96 * profitstd.dev / number iterations

To learn all the steps and apply the formulas require the existing and new staff to be enrolled in training sessions to be able to utilize the product appropriately.

2. I actually recommend the purchase and utilization of the Palisade's @Risk Product under paragraph#2. This product is developed in Excel, as well, however, the model is programmed. This product is user friendly and relatively easy to train the existing and new employees on the utilization. The cost of the professional product is $1,495 while the industrial version...

References: Risk Management for Projects & Programs - Week 5 Topic Notes; Chapter 58 – Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation, Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling by Wayne L Winston

http://www.riskdecisions.co.uk

http://www.palisade.com/

http://www.decisioneering.com/

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