# Decision Theory and Probability Distributions

Course Outline, Quarter I, 2006

ClassMaterials Topic

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Introduction

1Freemark Abbey Winery Structuring Decisions

Framework for Analyzing Risk

2The North Star ConcertNorth Star.xlsBest Guess, Worst Case, Best Case; and Continuous Uncertainties 3Engine Services, Inc.

Quick Start Guide to Crystal Ball

Analyzing Uncertainty, Probability Distributions, and SimulationLearning Module: Crystal Ball Litigate Demo Engine Services.xlsLanguage of Probability Distributions and Monte Carlo Simulation 4Taurus Telecommunications Corporation: A New Prepaid Phone CardLearning Module: Tornado Sensitivity Taurus Telecommunications.xlsSensitivity Analysis and Key Drivers Time Value of Money

5Dhahran Roads (A)

Evaluating Multiperiod Performance Multiperiod Pro Forma and NPV 6Roadway Construction Company NPV, IRR, and Project Assumptions Data and Distributions

7Appshop, Inc. Simulating NPV

8Lorex Pharmaceuticals

Introduction to Analytical Probability Distributions Lorex Exhibit 2.xlsDistributions 9Sprigg Lane (A)Sprigg2.xlsProbability Distributions and Spreadsheet Modeling; Risk 10The Waldorf Property

Chapter 11 of QBA: Text and Cases

Waldorf.xlsCumulative Distribution Functions, Adjustment for Risk 11Amore Frozen Foods (A) Macaroni and Cheese Fill Targets

SamplingAmore.xlsSample Uncertainty

Regression

12Hightower Department Stores: Imported Stuffed Animals

Introduction to Least SquaresHightower Exhibit 5.xlsIntroduction to Regression 13Problems in Regression

Using Dummy VariablesRegresProbSet.xlsMultiple Regression and Dummy Variables 14The Oakland A's (A)

The Oakland A’s (A) Supplement

Linear Model-Building Oakland As A.xlsRegression Modeling 15American Lawbook Corporation (A) and (B)American Lawbook Data.xlsSummary

*Electronic spreadsheets or online learning module

Decision Analysis

Course Outline, Quarter 3, 2007

ClassMaterials Topic

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