The Number of Marriage
IE423
FORECASTING METHODS AND APPLICATIONS
FINAL REPORT
Number of Marriages in Turkey
Cansu Gör
Ercan Yolal
Fulya Bolkol
Mehmet Koca
May 17th, 2013
1. Introduction and Problem Definition
Marriage is an important concept for Turkey both socially and economically. The reason why we choose the number of marriages is to analyze the impact of changing and developing deterministic factors on the number of marriages in Turkey. These factors that we choose to analyze the effect on marriage are golden prices, unemployment rate, temperature and CPI.
Golden prices are important since the weddings in Turkey include receiving golden as a gift for the couple. If the golden prices are high, people tend to get married at these times more than any other time that golden prices are low. Unemployment rate presents the economic situation of Turkey therefore economic situation of the couple. Another independent variable is CPI which represents the consumer price index. Finally, temperature is the most important independent variable in our opinion, since people tend to get married in summer season mostly.
Our time interval is the years between 2005 and 2011. The data is monthly gathered, so we have 12 observations for each year. Therefore, we have 84 observations in total.
There are some similar studies in literature like researching the impact of some factors on the duration of marriage, done by Duygu Özşen as her master’s thesis called “Analysis of factors that effects marriage duration with cox regression” [1]. She made a research about factors that effects marriage duration and focuses on appropriate partner choice, status before marriage, number of children, age, occupation, education level, income level, gender, etc. She made an analysis with Cox regression to analyze the impact of the factors. 2. Methodology
First of all, in order to estimate better results and make better interpretations, the data is collected from TUİK website. According to the
FORECASTING METHODS AND APPLICATIONS
FINAL REPORT
Number of Marriages in Turkey
Cansu Gör
Ercan Yolal
Fulya Bolkol
Mehmet Koca
May 17th, 2013
1. Introduction and Problem Definition
Marriage is an important concept for Turkey both socially and economically. The reason why we choose the number of marriages is to analyze the impact of changing and developing deterministic factors on the number of marriages in Turkey. These factors that we choose to analyze the effect on marriage are golden prices, unemployment rate, temperature and CPI.
Golden prices are important since the weddings in Turkey include receiving golden as a gift for the couple. If the golden prices are high, people tend to get married at these times more than any other time that golden prices are low. Unemployment rate presents the economic situation of Turkey therefore economic situation of the couple. Another independent variable is CPI which represents the consumer price index. Finally, temperature is the most important independent variable in our opinion, since people tend to get married in summer season mostly.
Our time interval is the years between 2005 and 2011. The data is monthly gathered, so we have 12 observations for each year. Therefore, we have 84 observations in total.
There are some similar studies in literature like researching the impact of some factors on the duration of marriage, done by Duygu Özşen as her master’s thesis called “Analysis of factors that effects marriage duration with cox regression” [1]. She made a research about factors that effects marriage duration and focuses on appropriate partner choice, status before marriage, number of children, age, occupation, education level, income level, gender, etc. She made an analysis with Cox regression to analyze the impact of the factors. 2. Methodology
First of all, in order to estimate better results and make better interpretations, the data is collected from TUİK website. According to the