Sport Obermeyer
Sport Obermeyer, Ltd.
General Background
Klaus Obermeyer emigrated from Germany to the United States in 1947 and started teaching at the Aspen Ski School. He was credited with making the first goose-down vest from a comforter in the 1950s. In 1992, estimated sales were $32.8 million with 45% share of children 's skiwear market and 11% share of the adult skiwear market. It produced and sold parkas, vests, ski suits, shells, ski pants, sweaters, turtlenecks, and accessories. Parkas are the most critical design component of the collection. All other garments are fashioned to match the parkas ' style and color.
Main Issues
Short Term-Forecasting (Supply and Demand)
• In November 1992, production quantities for each skiwear item offered in the line (1993-1994) are required. No indications about current 1992-1993 line available. Inaccurate forecasts of retailer demand are a problem. Production supply and customer demand differ. Forecasting becomes difficult with long production timelines (27 months). Cycle time reductions to be examined.
• Product variety and intense competition (Columbia Sportswear-23% of the adult ski-jacket market) make predictions difficult. Two scenarios 1) excess merchandise sold discounted below manufactured costs or 2) stock-outs and lost sales (production delays lead to lost sales as well) affecting return on investment for the companies (Obermeyer, Obersport and Alpine).
Sub Issues
• Disparate forecasts for 1993-1994 production and sales from management committee. Success depends on predicting market response to different styles and colours.
• Retailer feedback on 1993-1994 line won’t be until Las Vegas trade show in March 1993 after production. Waiting for market indicators delays delivery to retailers reducing exposure to products.
• Retailers want full delivery prior to start of season (early
General Background
Klaus Obermeyer emigrated from Germany to the United States in 1947 and started teaching at the Aspen Ski School. He was credited with making the first goose-down vest from a comforter in the 1950s. In 1992, estimated sales were $32.8 million with 45% share of children 's skiwear market and 11% share of the adult skiwear market. It produced and sold parkas, vests, ski suits, shells, ski pants, sweaters, turtlenecks, and accessories. Parkas are the most critical design component of the collection. All other garments are fashioned to match the parkas ' style and color.
Main Issues
Short Term-Forecasting (Supply and Demand)
• In November 1992, production quantities for each skiwear item offered in the line (1993-1994) are required. No indications about current 1992-1993 line available. Inaccurate forecasts of retailer demand are a problem. Production supply and customer demand differ. Forecasting becomes difficult with long production timelines (27 months). Cycle time reductions to be examined.
• Product variety and intense competition (Columbia Sportswear-23% of the adult ski-jacket market) make predictions difficult. Two scenarios 1) excess merchandise sold discounted below manufactured costs or 2) stock-outs and lost sales (production delays lead to lost sales as well) affecting return on investment for the companies (Obermeyer, Obersport and Alpine).
Sub Issues
• Disparate forecasts for 1993-1994 production and sales from management committee. Success depends on predicting market response to different styles and colours.
• Retailer feedback on 1993-1994 line won’t be until Las Vegas trade show in March 1993 after production. Waiting for market indicators delays delivery to retailers reducing exposure to products.
• Retailers want full delivery prior to start of season (early
References: Introduction to Forecasting McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. homes.ieu.edu.tr/~agokce/Courses/Chapter02.ppt 1. You +1 'd this publicly. Undo Delphi method - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method