Qrb/501 - Week 3 - Forecasting with Indices

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  • Topic: Time series, Index, Data analysis
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Week 3 - Forecasting with Indices
QRB/501

Week 3 - Forecasting with Indices
The individual assignment for this week tasked the students to select one organization from either our week two assignment or the University material. This paper will show the data in an index using the time series data to forecast inventory for the next year. The Winter Historical Inventory Data from the (University of Phoenix, 2010) shows four years of actual demand of inventory data for the seasonal Winter Highs. Each year is divided into 12 month increments. Methods

This breakdown of data allows for quantitative analysis. This approach is objective in nature compared to qualitative analysis which is developed using the judgment of experts. Results
The data was plotted and graphed into a chart to show the trend. Based on the chart the index has shown an increase from year to year during December but the other winter months do not show a clear trend.

University of Phoenix Material

Winter Historical Inventory Data

| Typical Seasonal Demand for Winter Highs|
| | | | | |
| | | Actual Demands (in units)| | |
| | | | | |
Month| Year 1| Year 2| Year 3| Year 4| Forecast| 1| 55,200| 39,800| 32,180| 62,300| 47,370|
2| 57,350| 64,100| 38,600| 66,500| 56,638|
3| 15,400| 47,600| 25,020| 31,400| 29,855|
4| 27,700| 43,050| 51,300| 36,500| 39,638|
5| 21,400| 39,300| 31,790| 16,800| 27,323|
6| 17,100| 10,300| 31,100| 18,900| 19,350|
7| 18,000| 45,100| 59,800| 35,500| 39,600|
8| 19,800| 46,530| 30,740| 51,250| 37,080|
9| 15,700| 22,100| 47,800| 34,400| 30,000|
10| 53,600| 41,350| 73,890| 68,000| 59,210|
11| 83,200| 46,000| 60,200| 68,100| 64,375|
12| 72,900| 41,800| 55,200| 61,100| 57,750|
Avg.| 38,113| 40,586| 44,802| 45,896| 42,349|...
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