Human Resource Managemen

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  • Topic: Markov chain, Forecasting, Andrey Markov
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  • Published : February 6, 2013
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BUS ADM 735 Staffing Organizations
Assignment #1
Due: Feb 6, 2013

Pages 138-139 of the textbook: Markov analysis and forecasting: questions 1-3.

1. The 2003-2004 transition probabilities provided indicate the following:

Sales,Full-time

50% stayed the same.
10% transferred to part-time status.
5% were promoted to Asst. Sales Mgr.
0% were promoted to Regional Sales Mgr.
35% left the organization

Sales,Part-time

5% transferred to full-time status.
60% stayed the same.
10% were promoted to Asst. Sales Mgr.
0% were promoted to Regional Sales Mgr.
25% left the organization.

Asst. Sales Mgr.

5% were demoted to full-time sales.
0% were demoted to part-time sales.
80% stayed the same.
10% were promoted to Regional Sales Mgr.
5% left the organization

Region. Sales Mgr.

0% transferred or were demoted to another job.
70% stayed the same.
30% left the organization.

2. Forecast the numbers available in each job category in 2006. | |Current(2005) |Forecast(2006) |

Job Category |Level |No. Employees |SF |SP |ASM |RSM |Total |Exit | |SF |1 |500 |250 |50 |25 |0 |325 |175 | |SP |1 |150 |7.5 |90 |15 |0 |112.5 |37.5 | |ASM |2 |50 |2.5 |0 |40 |5 |47.5 |2.5 | |RSM |3 |30 |0 |0 |0 |21 |21 |9 | |

Indicate potential limitations to your forecasts.

a. The first potential limitation is that of sample size. As a rule, it is desirable to have 20 or more employees in each job category/level. However, some cells in my forecasts contain fewer than 20 employees. It will yield unstable estimates of future availabilities.

b. The second limitation is that it does not detect multiple moves by employees between 2003 and 2004.

c. Finally, the transition probabilities reflect only gross, average employee movement. These probabilities cannot explain why movements occur.
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