Gas Turbine Electricity Generation Effects
ICF Resources, LLC
9300 Lee Highway
Fairfax, VA 22031
703-934-3000
703-934-3968 (Fax)
Revised DRAFT
Competitiveness of US Gas Turbine Manufacturers
March 29, 2013
Submitted to:
Gas Turbine Association
Submitted by:
ICF International
9300 Lee Highway
Fairfax, VA 22031
-------------------------------------------------
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
CHAPTER ONE OVERVIEW OF THE TWO CASES 11
CHAPTER TWO TECHNOLOGY COMPETITIVENESS RESULTS 16
CHAPTER THREE PROJECTED CO2 EMISSION IMPACTS OF R&D SPENDING 23
CHAPTER FOUR JOBS IMPACT RESULTS 24
CHAPTER FIVE APPENDIX – MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS 34
CHAPTER SIX MODELING METHODOLOGY 43
CHAPTER SEVEN GLOSSARY 46
CHAPTER EIGHT REFERENCES 51
* EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
GTA believes that expanded government-sponsored research on improved gas turbine technology will lead to more American jobs going forward, increased American global competitiveness, and potential greenhouse gas reductions in the power sector.
ICF International (“ICF”) was retained by the Gas Turbine Association (“GTA”) to assess the impacts of sponsored research on the competitiveness of US-based gas turbine manufacturers. The analysis estimates economy-wide impacts both in terms of the direct as well as the secondary (i.e., indirect and induced) American jobs supported. This analysis also quantifies the effect that the research and development (R&D) funding will have on American competitiveness by providing projections of gas turbine construction by US-based companies over the next twenty-five years.
To assess American job impacts, the study utilized the economic impact modeling software, IMPLAN. IMPLAN is used by many government agencies and other companies to quantify jobs and economic impacts. To assess the effect on US-basedturbine competitiveness, ICF utilizedits Integrated Planning Model (IPM®), which is a widely-used model that analyzes power markets and projects forward energy pricing, as well
9300 Lee Highway
Fairfax, VA 22031
703-934-3000
703-934-3968 (Fax)
Revised DRAFT
Competitiveness of US Gas Turbine Manufacturers
March 29, 2013
Submitted to:
Gas Turbine Association
Submitted by:
ICF International
9300 Lee Highway
Fairfax, VA 22031
-------------------------------------------------
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
CHAPTER ONE OVERVIEW OF THE TWO CASES 11
CHAPTER TWO TECHNOLOGY COMPETITIVENESS RESULTS 16
CHAPTER THREE PROJECTED CO2 EMISSION IMPACTS OF R&D SPENDING 23
CHAPTER FOUR JOBS IMPACT RESULTS 24
CHAPTER FIVE APPENDIX – MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS 34
CHAPTER SIX MODELING METHODOLOGY 43
CHAPTER SEVEN GLOSSARY 46
CHAPTER EIGHT REFERENCES 51
* EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
GTA believes that expanded government-sponsored research on improved gas turbine technology will lead to more American jobs going forward, increased American global competitiveness, and potential greenhouse gas reductions in the power sector.
ICF International (“ICF”) was retained by the Gas Turbine Association (“GTA”) to assess the impacts of sponsored research on the competitiveness of US-based gas turbine manufacturers. The analysis estimates economy-wide impacts both in terms of the direct as well as the secondary (i.e., indirect and induced) American jobs supported. This analysis also quantifies the effect that the research and development (R&D) funding will have on American competitiveness by providing projections of gas turbine construction by US-based companies over the next twenty-five years.
To assess American job impacts, the study utilized the economic impact modeling software, IMPLAN. IMPLAN is used by many government agencies and other companies to quantify jobs and economic impacts. To assess the effect on US-basedturbine competitiveness, ICF utilizedits Integrated Planning Model (IPM®), which is a widely-used model that analyzes power markets and projects forward energy pricing, as well
References: Energy Information Administration (EIA). 2012. “Annual Energy Outlook 2012” Washington, DC: Department of Energy http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2012).pdf Energy Information Administration (EIA) Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). 2012, “Results 91” Online at: http://www.rggi.org/docs/ProgramReview/February11/Results_91_Cap_Bank_MR.xls “Test Results of the World’s First 1,600 C J-series Gas Turbine,” Satoshi Hada, et al, March 2012. Ventyx database, 2013. [ 4 ]. With the opening of Siemens and Alstom manufacturing plants in the US (2011 and 2010 respectively), ICF assumes going forward that units produced by these companies are US-built and count toward the US-based total market share.