Gartners Hype Cycle

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Publication Date: 5 August 2005

ID Number: G00130115

Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report for 2005
Jackie Fenn, Alexander Linden

This year, we celebrate the 10th anniversary of Gartner's Hype Cycles. More than 1,600 information technologies and trends across 68 markets, regions and industries are evaluated in the most comprehensive assessment of technology maturity in the IT industry.

© 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

ANALYSIS
Gartner's Hype Cycles highlight the relative maturity of technologies across a wide range of IT domains, targeting different IT roles and responsibilities. Each Hype Cycle provides a snapshot of the position of technologies relative to a market, region or industry, identifying which technologies are hyped, which are suffering the inevitable disillusionment and which are stable enough to allow for a reasonable understanding of when and how to use them appropriately (see "Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles, 2005").

Ten years ago, Gartner introduced the idea of the Hype Cycle as a commentary on the common pattern of human response to technology (see Figure 1 and "When to Leap on the Hype Cycle"). Something about the pattern resonated deeply with technology planners, and Gartner received requests the following year for an update. Every year since, Gartner has published an Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle and applied the model to an ever-increasing number of IT and business domains.

Figure 1. First Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 1995
Peak
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
Intelligent
Agents
Technology
Trigger

Information
Superhighway
Plateau of
Productivity

Virtual
Reality

Slope of
Enlightenment

Wireless
Communications

Visibility

Trough of
Video
Disillusionment
Conferencing

Emergent
Computation

Handwriting
Recognition

Type A

Speech
Recognition

Knowledge-based
Systems

Object-oriented
Programming

Type B

Type C

Recommended
adoption
time frame*

Time
* The recommended adoption time frame may be swayed in either direction for a technology with a particularly high or low level of potential impact within an organization. For example, a Type B company may wait until the Plateau of Productivity to invest in a technology that will result in only marginal efficiency improvements. On the other hand, a Type C company may be prepared to weather some of the learning experiences of the Slope of Enlightenment for a technology that will have a major impact on its core business processes.

Source: Gartner (January 2005)

The technologies on the 1995 Hype Cycle have evolved; wireless communications have exploded into hundreds of underlying technologies, standards and applications, and the information superhighway has manifested itself through the Internet and World Wide Web to drive ubiquitous information access, new forms of community and whole industries built around online commerce. Some technologies didn't fare so well; videoconferencing, handwriting recognition and speech recognition are still featured 10 years later on the 2005 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle as they struggle toward mainstream adoption (see Figure 2 and "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2005").

Publication Date: 5 August 2005/ID...
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