demographic transition

Topics: Demography, Population, Demographic economics Pages: 4 (613 words) Published: March 31, 2014
2/11/2013

Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition

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• Demographic transition (DT) refers to the
transition from high birth and death rates to low
birth and death rates as a country develops from
a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic
system.
• This is typically demonstrated through a
demographic transition model. The theory is
based on an interpretation of demographic
history developed in 1919 by the American
demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973).

Demographic Transition Model

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2/11/2013

Demographic Transition: Stage 1

Demographic Transition: Stage 1

• STAGE ONE is associated with pre Modern times,
and is characterized by a balance between birth
rates and death rates.
• This situation was true of all human populations
up until the late 18th.C. when the balance was
broken in western Europe.
• Note that, in this stage, birth and death rates are
both very high (30-50 per thousand). Their
approximate balance results in only very slow
population growth.

• Given its characteristics, Stage One is sometimes
referred to as the "High Stationary Stage" of
population growth ("high" birth and death rates;
"stationary" rates and "stationary" total
population numbers).
• Death rates were very high at all times in this
stage for a number of reasons, including:

Demographic Transition: Stage 2

Demographic Transition: Stage 2

• STAGE TWO sees a rise in population caused by a decline in the death rate while the birth rate remains high, or perhaps even rises slightly.
• The decline in the death rate is due initially to two factors:

• A consequence of the decline in mortality in Stage Two is an increasingly rapid rise in population growth (a "population
explosion") as the gap between deaths and births grows wider. • Note that this growth is not due to an increase in fertility (or birth rates) but to a decline in deaths.
• Another characteristic of Stage Two of the...
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