Crops and Food Grains

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  • Topic: Crops, Rabi crop, Kharif crop
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  • Published : October 12, 2012
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Kharif crop progress
October 03, 2012

The kharif crops are sown and harvested during the monsoon season which runs from June to September and is critical for overall food production for the entire year. This report tracks the area under cultivation for different kharif crops and gives a fair estimate of production for the year 2012-13.

Assumptions:
The production estimates for 2012 kharif crops are based on the linear regression model in which production is the dependent variable while area sown and deviation of the southwest rainfall from normal are independent variables. The production estimate for 2010 and 2011 is based on the final yield levels achieved in the respective year and on the net area sown for the same period.

The area sown reported as on September 21, 2012 released by Ministry of Agriculture.

Table 1: Country view kharif crop (2012-13)
Deviation of rainfall from normal

Crop Name
Cereals
Pulses
Food grains
Oilseeds
Cotton
Sugarcane

Normal
Area
60.97
10.98
71.94
17.89
10.86
4.72

-8%

Area sown (million hectares)
Net area
%
Net area
% change
sown (21achieved
sown (21compared
09-12)
of normal
09-11)
to 2011
53.97
88.5%
58.18
-7.2%
9.98
90.9%
10.83
-7.8%
63.95
88.9%
69.01
-7.3%
17.44
97.5%
17.82
-2.1%
11.49
105.8%
12.02
-4.4%
5.29
112.0%
5.10
3.7%

Production (million tonnes)
Net area
sown (2309-10)
55.87
12.03
67.90
17.30
10.99
4.94

2012 Range

2011

2010

99.84 - 111.04
4.50 - 5.57
108.86 - 120.44
17.07 - 19.77
4.19 - 5.49
362.02 - 380.08

122.83
5.97
128.45
20.52
5.97
358.09

105.86
6.95
113.49
20.81
5.53
342.35

Summary:
As per the sowing information available, we have managed to achieve 89% of the total normal sowing area for food grains and compared to 2011-12, it has lagged nearly by 7%, resulting in lower kharif food grains production estimates for 2012-13. According to the first advance estimates, released by Ministry of Agriculture, the kharif food grain production is pegged at 117.18 MT, lower by 10% compared to the last year (2011-12) production of 129.94 MT. We expect the kharif food grains, oilseeds and cotton production in the range of 108.9-120.4 MT, 17.1-19.8 MT, and 4.2-5.5 MT respectively, lower than 2011-12 , due to the below normal rainfall activity during the crucial month of July in the major cropping states and overall deficiency in rainfall at around 8 per cent of normal.

1

Table 2: Area sown & Production estimates- Detailed view (2012-13) Deviation of rainfall from normal

Crop Name

Normal
Area

- 8%

Area sown (million hectares)
Net area
%
Net area
% change
sown (21achieved
sown (21compared
09-12)
of normal
09-11)
to 2011

Production (million tonnes)
Net area
sown (2309-10)

2012 Range

2011

2010

Rice
Jowar
Bajra
Maize
Cereals

39.11
3.29
9.27
7.06
60.97

36.38
2.40
6.09
7.40
53.97

93.0%
73.0%
65.6%
104.8%
88.5%

38.08
2.63
8.09
7.54
58.18

-4.5%
-8.8%
-24.8%
-1.8%
-7.2%

34.78
3.05
8.63
7.52
55.87

79.56 - 85.01
1.94 - 3.38
5.52 - 7.83
14.06 - 15.94
99.84 - 111.04

90.26
3.25
10.06
16.22
122.83

73.75
3.76
9.49
17.18
105.86

Tur
Urad
Moong
Pulses
Food grains

3.70
2.31
2.63
10.98
71.94

3.66
2.38
1.95
9.98
63.95

98.9%
103.1%
74.0%
90.9%
88.9%

3.82
2.20
2.28
10.83
69.01

-4.1%
8.4%
-14.8%
-7.8%
-7.3%

4.55
2.49
2.80
12.03
67.90

2.14 - 2.99
0.98 - 1.21
0.66 - 0.94
4.50 - 5.57
108.86 - 120.44

2.61
1.21
1.24
5.97
128.45

2.95
1.38
1.50
6.95
113.49

Groundnuts
Soybean
Sunflower
Sesame
Castor
Oilseeds

4.99
9.21
0.63
1.87
0.78
17.89

3.88
10.71
0.23
1.36
1.05
17.44

77.7%
116.2%
36.5%
72.6%
134.7%
97.5%

4.32
10.32
0.27
1.52
1.19
17.82

-10.1%
3.7%
-13.2%
-10.7%
-12.1%
-2.1%

4.95
9.32
0.28
1.64
0.83
17.30

3.34 - 6.19
12.62 - 13.98
0.109 - 0.183
0.53 - 0.73
1.36 -...
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