An Analysis of the first Advance Estimate of Kharif Crop Production in 2012-13.
ECONOMIC NOTES
EPW Research Foundation
Prospects for Agricultural Production in 2012-13
Nishigandha Lokhande
An analysis of the first advance estimate of kharif crop production in 2012-13.
he prospects for agricultural production in the first year 2012-13 of the Twelfth Plan are not bright because of a delayed monsoon and then breaks in-between. The government has fixed a kharif foodgrains production target of 129 million tonnes (mt) for 2012-13 which is slightly less than the fourth advance estimate (129.94 mt) for 2011-12 which was a bumper production year. Since the initial progress of the south-west monsoon this year had been poor, there was considerable initial pessimism that 2012-13 may turn out to be another drought year like 2009-10. However, a reading of the first advance estimate of agricultural production for kharif 2012-13 released by the Ministry of Agriculture on 24 September, along with the trends in some major parameters like rainfall, reservoir levels, progress in sowings and credit flow, gives hope that production in 2012-13 may turn out to be better than what the advance estimates portend. Kharif production accounts for about half of total annual foodgrain output
Table 1: Kharif Estimates Summary
Crops Fourth Advance Estimate 2011-12 1
T
and more than three-fourths of annual production of rice and coarse cereals. Among the commercial crops, kharif accounts for three-fourths of groundnut output and the entire production of soyabean. Kharif production levels over the last 10 years have not shown any overall secular growth nor any structural breaks. There has only been some buoyancy in production of rice, particularly in the past couple of years and an upward shift in production levels of bajra and maize. Commercial crops seemed to have shown a better buoyancy, particularly, soyabean and castor seeds and cotton and sugar cane (Graphs 1 and 2, p 84). Table 1 provides summary details of the kharif estimates for 2012-13 in comparison
EPW Research Foundation
Prospects for Agricultural Production in 2012-13
Nishigandha Lokhande
An analysis of the first advance estimate of kharif crop production in 2012-13.
he prospects for agricultural production in the first year 2012-13 of the Twelfth Plan are not bright because of a delayed monsoon and then breaks in-between. The government has fixed a kharif foodgrains production target of 129 million tonnes (mt) for 2012-13 which is slightly less than the fourth advance estimate (129.94 mt) for 2011-12 which was a bumper production year. Since the initial progress of the south-west monsoon this year had been poor, there was considerable initial pessimism that 2012-13 may turn out to be another drought year like 2009-10. However, a reading of the first advance estimate of agricultural production for kharif 2012-13 released by the Ministry of Agriculture on 24 September, along with the trends in some major parameters like rainfall, reservoir levels, progress in sowings and credit flow, gives hope that production in 2012-13 may turn out to be better than what the advance estimates portend. Kharif production accounts for about half of total annual foodgrain output
Table 1: Kharif Estimates Summary
Crops Fourth Advance Estimate 2011-12 1
T
and more than three-fourths of annual production of rice and coarse cereals. Among the commercial crops, kharif accounts for three-fourths of groundnut output and the entire production of soyabean. Kharif production levels over the last 10 years have not shown any overall secular growth nor any structural breaks. There has only been some buoyancy in production of rice, particularly in the past couple of years and an upward shift in production levels of bajra and maize. Commercial crops seemed to have shown a better buoyancy, particularly, soyabean and castor seeds and cotton and sugar cane (Graphs 1 and 2, p 84). Table 1 provides summary details of the kharif estimates for 2012-13 in comparison
References: november 10, 2012 vol xlviI no 45