Clsa Research
Hong Kong
Market Outlook
30 March 2004
Adam Cheng Effect
Adam in The Greed of Man
How the omen begins…
The tongue-in-cheek Adam Cheng Effect was first mentioned in the media in late
90s. It was the time when the Hang Seng Index slumped 11% after TVB began to broadcast the TV series Cold Blood Warm Heart on 2 February 1996, with Hong
Kong TV star Adam Cheng being the lead actor. People started to accuse Adam’s shows for the poor stock market performance, and correlated it with other crashes, especially the one in late 1992 – Adam played the role of the most crazy market
Source: TVBI
punter “Crab Ting” in the series The Greed of Man. The HSI plummeted 20% during the show! (Figure 1)
Figure 1
Market performance after Adam’s show
TV Series
The Greed of Man
Instinct
The Legend of Chor Lau Heung
Forty Something
Cold Blood Warm Heart
Legend of Yung Ching
Lord of Imprisonment
Divine Retribution
The Driving Power
Blade Heart
Max. decline during the series
HSI
# of episode
3M %chg
In Chinese
Low
Index % chg to bottom % broadcasted from bottom
大時代
03/12/92
4,978
-20.1
24
60.0
29.3
笑看風雲
12/12/94
7,708
-20.1
31
77.5
5.2
香帥傳奇
02/05/95
8,212
-0.2
2
4.5
14.6
男人四十一頭家
13/06/95
9,103
-4.9
7
35.0
5.3
天地男兒
13/03/96
10,249
-10.8
28
43.1
6.0
江湖奇俠傳
12/01/98
8,121
-24.5
31
51.7
39.7
神劍萬里追
11/08/99
12,438
-14.3
28
77.8
13.4
世紀之戰
19/10/00
14,423
-15.2
29
72.5
10.5
非常外父
08/10/03
11,721
-0.1
3
15.0
14.2
Average =
-12.2
48.6
15.3
血薦軒轅
???
???
???
???
???
???
Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets
Even though no logical reasons could be found, the predictive power of the “Adam
Adam in Driving Power
Cheng” effect is mysteriously accurate – whenever Adam plays in a TV series over the past 12 years, the stock market always falls, ranging from 0.1% to 25%! Also, there were only twice that the HSI ended higher than his show began!
Many people thought that Adam’s
Market Outlook
30 March 2004
Adam Cheng Effect
Adam in The Greed of Man
How the omen begins…
The tongue-in-cheek Adam Cheng Effect was first mentioned in the media in late
90s. It was the time when the Hang Seng Index slumped 11% after TVB began to broadcast the TV series Cold Blood Warm Heart on 2 February 1996, with Hong
Kong TV star Adam Cheng being the lead actor. People started to accuse Adam’s shows for the poor stock market performance, and correlated it with other crashes, especially the one in late 1992 – Adam played the role of the most crazy market
Source: TVBI
punter “Crab Ting” in the series The Greed of Man. The HSI plummeted 20% during the show! (Figure 1)
Figure 1
Market performance after Adam’s show
TV Series
The Greed of Man
Instinct
The Legend of Chor Lau Heung
Forty Something
Cold Blood Warm Heart
Legend of Yung Ching
Lord of Imprisonment
Divine Retribution
The Driving Power
Blade Heart
Max. decline during the series
HSI
# of episode
3M %chg
In Chinese
Low
Index % chg to bottom % broadcasted from bottom
大時代
03/12/92
4,978
-20.1
24
60.0
29.3
笑看風雲
12/12/94
7,708
-20.1
31
77.5
5.2
香帥傳奇
02/05/95
8,212
-0.2
2
4.5
14.6
男人四十一頭家
13/06/95
9,103
-4.9
7
35.0
5.3
天地男兒
13/03/96
10,249
-10.8
28
43.1
6.0
江湖奇俠傳
12/01/98
8,121
-24.5
31
51.7
39.7
神劍萬里追
11/08/99
12,438
-14.3
28
77.8
13.4
世紀之戰
19/10/00
14,423
-15.2
29
72.5
10.5
非常外父
08/10/03
11,721
-0.1
3
15.0
14.2
Average =
-12.2
48.6
15.3
血薦軒轅
???
???
???
???
???
???
Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets
Even though no logical reasons could be found, the predictive power of the “Adam
Adam in Driving Power
Cheng” effect is mysteriously accurate – whenever Adam plays in a TV series over the past 12 years, the stock market always falls, ranging from 0.1% to 25%! Also, there were only twice that the HSI ended higher than his show began!
Many people thought that Adam’s