Clsa Research

Only available on StudyMode
  • Topic: Adam Cheng, Television Broadcasts Limited, Hong Kong
  • Pages : 25 (2011 words )
  • Download(s) : 284
  • Published : January 26, 2013
Open Document
Text Preview
Hong Kong

Market Outlook

30 March 2004

Adam Cheng Effect
Adam in The Greed of Man

How the omen begins…
The tongue-in-cheek Adam Cheng Effect was first mentioned in the media in late 90s. It was the time when the Hang Seng Index slumped 11% after TVB began to broadcast the TV series Cold Blood Warm Heart on 2 February 1996, with Hong Kong TV star Adam Cheng being the lead actor. People started to accuse Adam’s shows for the poor stock market performance, and correlated it with other crashes, especially the one in late 1992 – Adam played the role of the most crazy market

Source: TVBI

punter “Crab Ting” in the series The Greed of Man. The HSI plummeted 20% during the show! (Figure 1)

Figure 1

Market performance after Adam’s show

TV Series
The Greed of Man
Instinct
The Legend of Chor Lau Heung
Forty Something
Cold Blood Warm Heart
Legend of Yung Ching
Lord of Imprisonment
Divine Retribution
The Driving Power
Blade Heart

Max. decline during the series
HSI
# of episode
3M %chg
In Chinese
Low
Index % chg
to bottom % broadcasted from bottom
大時代
03/12/92
4,978
-20.1
24
60.0
29.3
笑看風雲
12/12/94
7,708
-20.1
31
77.5
5.2
香帥傳奇
02/05/95
8,212
-0.2
2
4.5
14.6
男人四十一頭家
13/06/95
9,103
-4.9
7
35.0
5.3
天地男兒
13/03/96
10,249
-10.8
28
43.1
6.0
江湖奇俠傳
12/01/98
8,121
-24.5
31
51.7
39.7
神劍萬里追
11/08/99
12,438
-14.3
28
77.8
13.4
世紀之戰
19/10/00
14,423
-15.2
29
72.5
10.5
非常外父
08/10/03
11,721
-0.1
3
15.0
14.2
Average =
-12.2
48.6
15.3
血薦軒轅
???
???
???
???
???
???

Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

Even though no logical reasons could be found, the predictive power of the “Adam Adam in Driving Power

Cheng” effect is mysteriously accurate – whenever Adam plays in a TV series over the past 12 years, the stock market always falls, ranging from 0.1% to 25%! Also, there were only twice that the HSI ended higher than his show began! Many people thought that Adam’s curse is over after his last show The Driving Power was broadcast in October 2003, as the market dropped only 0.1% at most. However, the effect seems to work again as the HSI has lost 8.5% since the debut

Source: TVB.com

of Adam’s new series Blade Heart on 8 March 2004. It leads us to rediscover the mystical Adam Cheng Effect.

Figure 2

Adam Cheng Effect does not last for the whole series
TV Series
The Greed of Man
Instinct
The Legend of Chor Lau Heung
Forty Something
Cold Blood Warm Heart
Legend of Yung Ching
Lord of Imprisonment
Divine Retribution
The Driving Power

In Chinese
大時代
笑看風雲
香帥傳奇
男人四十一頭家
天地男兒
江湖奇俠傳
神劍萬里追
世紀之戰
非常外父

Blade Heart

血薦軒轅

Episode
40
40
44
20
65
60
36
40
20
37

Channel
TVB
TVB
ATV
TVB
TVB
ATV
ATV
ATV
TVB

Start
02/11/92
31/10/94
01/05/95
05/06/95
05/02/96
01/12/97
05/07/99
11/09/00
06/10/03

TVB 08/03/04

HSI
6,231
9,646
8,226
9,570
11,484
10,751
14,507
17,008
11,734

Finish
HSI
25/12/92
5,442
23/12/94
8,312
30/06/95
9,207
30/06/95
9,207
03/05/96
10,734
20/02/98
10,600
20/08/99
13,567
03/11/00
15,594
31/10/03
12,190
Average =
13,574 25/04/04
???

% Chg
-12.7
-13.8
11.9
-3.8
-6.5
-1.4
-6.5
-8.3
3.9
-4.1
???

Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets

Please see important notice on last page

Page 1 of 6

Hong Kong

Market Outlook

30 March 2004

Historical performance
Adam in The Legend of
Yung Ching

Historic trends show that the Adam Cheng Effect on average drives the market down by 12.2%, ranging from the smallest decline of 0.1% during the period of Driving Power in October 1993 to the maximum of 24.5% when ATV was broadcasting The Legend of Yung Ching at the end of 1998.

Fortunately, Adam Cheng Effect does not last for the whole period of the series (Figure 2). Our analysis shows that the market usually rebounds before the series ends. The Effect lessens from about halfway to two-thirds of the way through the...
tracking img