The hypothesis of this research was that when the original National Football Conference (NFC) team wins the game, the U.S. stock market increases and when the American Football Conference (AFC) (except Cleveland, Pittsburg and Indianapolis) wins the Super Bowl the U.S. stock market decreases. Correlation analysis was used to determine this hypothesis of Super Bowl winner predicts U.S. stock market.
The Super Bowl indicator has been accurate for 36 years out of 44 years (according to Dow Jones Industrial average), which represents a success rate of 81%. Between 1967 and 1997 it was accurate 28 times out of 31 (a better than 90%).
To analyze this Super Bowl indicator, it was assumed that NFC wins as '1' and AFC wins as '0'. We correlated the results when the NFC wins the game and the AFC wins the game from 1967 to 2010.
Table of Contents
List of Tablesiii
Data Description and Collection4
Statistical techniques used6
Analysis of findings7
List of Tables
1) Changes in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index as a Function of Super Bowl Victor……………3 2) Super Bowl winners and changes in DJIA, 1967-2010..............................................................4 3) Regression analysis results for 1967-1988 and 1967-2010........................................................8
The literature illustrated that the Super Bowl winner was the forecaster of U.S. stock market that year. The first Super Bowl was started in 1967 and there were 45 games played up to 2011. Up to 1970, there were two teams that played in the Super Bowl, the National Football League (NFL) and the American Football League (AFL). In 1970, both of these teams were merged and formed the National Football League (NFL). The NFL contains 32 teams which were divided into the National Football Conference (NFC) and the American Football Conference (AFC) containing 16 teams each. At the time of merge, some teams from the National Football League (Cleveland, Pittsburg and Indianapolis [formerly Baltimore]) were merged into the American Football Conference.
Many researchers over the past few years have analyzed the Super Bowl theory. Some researchers support the Super Bowl theory and some others fail to support this theory. “The Super Bowl theory still enjoys popular support though its predictive power is much less than twelve or even six years ago” (Sommers, 2000). “The association between the winners of the Super Bowl and the performance of the stock market is entirely chance” (Dyl & Schatzberg, 1989). "It is difficult to conduct a direct test of market efficiency in the financial market because the real value of the investment is not exposed. Therefore, efficiency tests are focusing on the predictability of asset return" (Gray & Gray, 1997). "It is not necessary that rational investors actually believe that the Super Bowl predicts the stock market. They need only suspect that the outcome of the Super Bowl might affect the behavior of other investors"(Dyl & Schatzberg, 1989). "Investment decisions in each year depended on the outcome of the Super Bowl. If the team from NFL won the game then funds were transferred to stock market from money market on the Super Bowl following Monday. If the funds were already invested in stock market they persisted there. If the team from AFL won the game then funds were transferred from stock market to money market or remain in the money market if an AFL team had won previous year" (Kruger & Kennedy, 1990).
"To predict the outcome of the stock market, generally a predictor has two approaches. One approach is by using available information, relying primarily on intuition and on past experience and by implementing simple...