Brs Mdm3 Tif Ch11

Topics: Regression analysis, Forecasting, Time series Pages: 28 (3150 words) Published: January 11, 2015

Managerial Decision Modeling w/ Spreadsheets, 3e (Balakrishnan/Render/Stair) Chapter 11 Forecasting Models

11.1 Chapter Questions

1) Consider the following data that was fitted using a Linear Trend.

Period
Actual value (or) Y
Period number (or) X
Period 1
10
1
Period 2
11
2
Period 3
9
3
Period 4
12
4
Period 5
13
5
Period 6
12
6
Period 7
15
7

The intercept of the trend line is 8.714, and the slope is 0.75. What is the forecast for period 8? A) 13.714
B) 14.714
C) 15.714
D) 16.714
E) 15.75
Answer: B
Page Ref: 495
Topic: Trend and Seasonality in Time-Series Data
Difficulty: Moderate
AACSB: Analytic Skills

2) Which of the following is considered to be a category of forecasting models? A) Qualitative
B) Time-series
C) Causal models
D) both A and B
E) A, B, and C
Answer: E
Page Ref: 476
Topic: Types of Forecasts
Difficulty: Easy
3) Which of the following is NOT a qualitative method of forecasting? A) Delphi Method
B) Trend Analysis
C) Jury of Executive Opinion
D) Sales Force Composition
E) Consumer Market Survey
Answer: B
Page Ref: 477
Topic: Types of Forecasts
Difficulty: Easy

4) Which of the following is NOT considered to be a Time-Series method of forecasting? A) Simple Linear Regression
B) Moving Average
C) Exponential Smoothing
D) Seasonality Analysis
E) Multiplicative/Additive Decomposition
Answer: A
Page Ref: 477
Topic: Types of Forecasts
Difficulty: Moderate

5) An iterative group process that allows experts, who may be located in different places, to make forecasts is referred to as ________. A) a jury of executive opinion
B) a sales force composite
C) ca onsumer market survey
D) the Delphi method
E) trend analysis
Answer: D
Page Ref: 477
Topic: Qualitative Forecasting Models
Difficulty: Moderate
6) Consider the following data that was fitted using a linear trend.
Period
Actual value (or) Y
Period number (or) X
Period 1
10
1
Period 2
11
2
Period 3
9
3
Period 4
12
4
Period 5
13
5
Period 6
12
6
Period 7
15
7

The intercept of the trend line is 8.714, and the slope is 0.75. What is the forecast error for period 7? A) 1.036
B) 8
C) 2.37
D) 5.714
E) 4.75
Answer: A
Page Ref: 497
Topic: Trend and Seasonality in Time-Series Data
Difficulty: Challenging
7) Consider the following data and Excel output for a simple linear regression model. How much of the total variation in the dependent variable (Y) is explained by the independent variable (X)?

Period
Y
X
Period 1
10
1
Period 2
11
2
Period 3
9
3
Period 4
12
4
Period 5
13
5
Period 6
12
6
Period 7
15
7

Intercept
2.267
Slope
0.843
SE
1.810
Correlation
0.890
r-squared
0.791

A) 2.267
B) 0.843
C) 1.810
D) 0.890
E) 0.791

Answer: E
Page Ref: 506
Topic: Causal Forecasting Models: Simple and Multiple Regression Difficulty: Moderate
AACSB: Analytic Skills
8) Consider the following data and its associated Excel output for a simple linear regression model. How would you describe the linear relationship between Y and X?

Period
Y
X
Period 1
10
1
Period 2
11
2
Period 3
9
3
Period 4
12
4
Period 5
13
5
Period 6
12
6
Period 7
15
7

Intercept
2.267
Slope
0.843
SE
1.810
Correlation
0.890
r-squared
0.791

A) no relationship
B) positive relationship
C) negative relationship
D) inverse relationship
E) not enough information is provided

Answer: B
Page Ref: 506
Topic: Causal Forecasting Models: Simple and Multiple Regression Difficulty: Moderate
AACSB: Analytic Skills

9) The value of the coefficient of determination R2 ranges between A) 0 and -1
B) -1 and +1
C) 0 and +1
D) - infinity and + infinity
E) +1 and + infinity
Answer: C
Page Ref: 509
Topic: Causal Forecasting Models: Simple and Multiple Regression Difficulty: Moderate
10) The value of the correlation coefficient "r" ranges between A) - infinity and + infinity
B) +1 and +...
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