# Brs Mdm3 Tif Ch11

**Topics:**Regression analysis, Forecasting, Time series

**Pages:**28 (3150 words)

**Published:**January 11, 2015

Managerial Decision Modeling w/ Spreadsheets, 3e (Balakrishnan/Render/Stair) Chapter 11 Forecasting Models

11.1 Chapter Questions

1) Consider the following data that was fitted using a Linear Trend.

Period

Actual value (or) Y

Period number (or) X

Period 1

10

1

Period 2

11

2

Period 3

9

3

Period 4

12

4

Period 5

13

5

Period 6

12

6

Period 7

15

7

The intercept of the trend line is 8.714, and the slope is 0.75. What is the forecast for period 8? A) 13.714

B) 14.714

C) 15.714

D) 16.714

E) 15.75

Answer: B

Page Ref: 495

Topic: Trend and Seasonality in Time-Series Data

Difficulty: Moderate

AACSB: Analytic Skills

2) Which of the following is considered to be a category of forecasting models? A) Qualitative

B) Time-series

C) Causal models

D) both A and B

E) A, B, and C

Answer: E

Page Ref: 476

Topic: Types of Forecasts

Difficulty: Easy

3) Which of the following is NOT a qualitative method of forecasting? A) Delphi Method

B) Trend Analysis

C) Jury of Executive Opinion

D) Sales Force Composition

E) Consumer Market Survey

Answer: B

Page Ref: 477

Topic: Types of Forecasts

Difficulty: Easy

4) Which of the following is NOT considered to be a Time-Series method of forecasting? A) Simple Linear Regression

B) Moving Average

C) Exponential Smoothing

D) Seasonality Analysis

E) Multiplicative/Additive Decomposition

Answer: A

Page Ref: 477

Topic: Types of Forecasts

Difficulty: Moderate

5) An iterative group process that allows experts, who may be located in different places, to make forecasts is referred to as ________. A) a jury of executive opinion

B) a sales force composite

C) ca onsumer market survey

D) the Delphi method

E) trend analysis

Answer: D

Page Ref: 477

Topic: Qualitative Forecasting Models

Difficulty: Moderate

6) Consider the following data that was fitted using a linear trend.

Period

Actual value (or) Y

Period number (or) X

Period 1

10

1

Period 2

11

2

Period 3

9

3

Period 4

12

4

Period 5

13

5

Period 6

12

6

Period 7

15

7

The intercept of the trend line is 8.714, and the slope is 0.75. What is the forecast error for period 7? A) 1.036

B) 8

C) 2.37

D) 5.714

E) 4.75

Answer: A

Page Ref: 497

Topic: Trend and Seasonality in Time-Series Data

Difficulty: Challenging

7) Consider the following data and Excel output for a simple linear regression model. How much of the total variation in the dependent variable (Y) is explained by the independent variable (X)?

Period

Y

X

Period 1

10

1

Period 2

11

2

Period 3

9

3

Period 4

12

4

Period 5

13

5

Period 6

12

6

Period 7

15

7

Intercept

2.267

Slope

0.843

SE

1.810

Correlation

0.890

r-squared

0.791

A) 2.267

B) 0.843

C) 1.810

D) 0.890

E) 0.791

Answer: E

Page Ref: 506

Topic: Causal Forecasting Models: Simple and Multiple Regression Difficulty: Moderate

AACSB: Analytic Skills

8) Consider the following data and its associated Excel output for a simple linear regression model. How would you describe the linear relationship between Y and X?

Period

Y

X

Period 1

10

1

Period 2

11

2

Period 3

9

3

Period 4

12

4

Period 5

13

5

Period 6

12

6

Period 7

15

7

Intercept

2.267

Slope

0.843

SE

1.810

Correlation

0.890

r-squared

0.791

A) no relationship

B) positive relationship

C) negative relationship

D) inverse relationship

E) not enough information is provided

Answer: B

Page Ref: 506

Topic: Causal Forecasting Models: Simple and Multiple Regression Difficulty: Moderate

AACSB: Analytic Skills

9) The value of the coefficient of determination R2 ranges between A) 0 and -1

B) -1 and +1

C) 0 and +1

D) - infinity and + infinity

E) +1 and + infinity

Answer: C

Page Ref: 509

Topic: Causal Forecasting Models: Simple and Multiple Regression Difficulty: Moderate

10) The value of the correlation coefficient "r" ranges between A) - infinity and + infinity

B) +1 and +...

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