000 20X3 $6‚000‚000 20X4 $6‚750‚000 For moving averages and weighted moving averages‚ use only the data for the past three fiscal years. For weighted moving averages‚ assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2‚ a value of 2 to the data for 20X3‚ and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. Forecast personnel expenses for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages‚ weighted moving averages‚ exponential smoothing‚ and time series regression. Moving Averages Fiscal Year Expenses 20X2 $5
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The following data represent total personnel expenses for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for past four fiscal years: 20X1 $5‚250‚000 20X2 $5‚500‚000 20X3 $6‚000‚000 20X4 $6‚750‚000 Moving Averages 20X2-X4 $18‚250‚000 / 3 = $6‚083‚333 Weighted Moving Averages Fiscal Year Expenses Weight Weighted Score 20X2 $5‚500‚000 1 $5‚500‚000 20X3 $6‚000‚000 2 $12‚000‚000 20X4 $6‚750‚000 3 $20‚250‚000 __ ___________ 6 $37‚750‚000 20X5
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years: 20 X 1 = $5‚250‚000 20 X 2 = $5‚500‚000 20 X 3 = $6‚000‚000 20 X 4 = $6‚750‚000 Forecast personnel expenses for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages weighted moving averages‚ exponential smoothing‚ and time series regression. For moving averages and weighted moving averages‚ use only the data for the past three fiscal years. For weighted moving averages‚ assign a value of 1 to the data for 20 X 2‚ a value of 2 to the data for 20 X 3‚ and a value of 3 to the data for 20 X 4. For exponential
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Chapter 4_class exercise True/False 1. The forecasting time horizon and the forecasting techniques used tend to vary over the life cycle of a product. Answer: TRUE 2. A time-series model uses a series of past data points to make the forecast. Answer: TRUE 3. Cycles and random variations are both components of time series. Answer: TRUE 4. One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved. Answer: TRUE 5. If a forecast is consistently greater
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1 2.8 3.1 2.5 2.2 3.6 4. a. Explain the characteristics of business forecasting. [ 5 marks] b. Differentiate between prediction‚ projection and forecasting. [ 5 marks] 5. What are the components of time series? Bring out the significance of moving average in analysing a time series and point out its limitations. [ 10 marks] 6. List down various measures of central tendency and explain the difference between them? [ 5 marks] b. What is a confidence interval‚ and why it is useful? What is a confidence
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thousands of dollars) for the years 2009 through 2012 havebeen $48‚000‚ $64‚000‚$67‚00 and $83‚000‚ respectively a) What sales would you predict for 2013‚ using a simple four-year moving average? F2013 = = $65‚500 $65‚000 is the forecast for 2013 b) What sales would you predict for 2013‚ using a weighted moving average with weights of0.50 for the immediate preceding year and 0.3‚ 0.15‚ and 0.05 for the three years before that? F2013 = 0.50A2012 + 0.3A2011 + 0.15A2010 + 0.05A2009
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Lisa Brown Hsm/ 260 Week 5 – Forecasting Checkpoint 3/8/13 Exercise 9.1 20X1 $5‚250‚000 20X2 $5‚500‚000 20X3 $6‚000‚000 20X4 $6‚750‚000 Moving Averages 20X2-X4 $18‚250‚000 / 3 = $6‚083‚333 Weighted Moving Averages Fiscal Year Expenses Weight Weighted Score 20X2 $5‚500‚000 1 $5‚500‚000 20X3 $6‚000‚000 2 $12‚000‚000 20X4 $6‚750‚000 3 $20‚250‚000 __ ___________ 6 $37‚750‚000 20X5 $37‚750‚000 /6 = $6‚291‚667 Exponential Smoothing NF = $6‚300‚000
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forecast error: Average error Mean absolute deviation (MAD) Average absolute error Mean squared error (MSE) Average of squared error Mean Absolute Percent error (MAPE) Tracking signal Ratio of cumulative error and MAD Time Series Forecasting Naïve (Just move the At value over 1 and down 1 to the Ft column) Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Trend Adjusted Forecasting Moving Average N=3 (493+498+492)/3=494.33 Weighted Moving Average .2‚ .3‚.5 (.2*493)+(
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ending with week 11‚ forecast registrations using the naïve forecasting method. Naïve Forecast Ft = At-1 ie F2 = A1 = 22. Carrying this down the table through to week 11 gives: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Registrations 22 21 25 27 35 29 33 37 41 37 Forecast 22 21 25 27 35 29 33 37 41 37 (3 marks) b) Starting with week 3 and ending with week 11‚ forecast registration using a two-week moving average. Moving Average Forecast Ft = ie F3 = = = 21.5. Carrying this down the table through
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MAN 6501 - Operations Management Examination 1 Instructions 1. Give answers up to two decimal points only. 2. This is an open book/open notes examination. Students are required to work individually on the examination. 3. There are 30 questions. Questions 1 through 20 carry 2.5 points each and questions 21 through 30 carry 5.00 points each. 4. This examination carries 25% weight towards the final grade. 5. You have five hours of continuous time to finish the examination from the time
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