Unit-03-Technology Forecasting Structure: 3.1 Introduction Objectives 3.2 Concept of Technology Forecasting Characteristics of technology forecasting Technology forecast method Principles of technology forecasting 3.3 Technology Forecasting Process 3.4 Need and Role of Technology Forecasting 3.5 Forecasting Methods and Techniques 3.6 Planning and Forecasting 3.7 Summary 3.8 Glossary 3.9 Terminal Questions 3.10 Answers 3.11 Case Study 3.1 Introduction By now‚ we are familiar with
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Forecasting can be generally regarded as a method or techniques for approximating several forthcoming facets of businesses or other operations. Forecasting can be achieved by using several methods. An example of that is a wholesale business that has been operational for 15 years‚ that business would be able to forecast the business’s capacity of the sales in the approaching year derived from its proficiency over the past 15 years of being in business. Forecasting method uses the historical data of
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Types of forecasting There are two major types of forecasting‚ which can be broadly described as macro and micro: Macro forecasting is concerned with forecasting markets in total. This is about determining the existing level of Market Demand and considering what will happen to market demand in the future. Micro forecasting is concerned with detailed unit sales forecasts. This is about determining a product’s market share in a particular industry and considering what will happen to that market
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Business Forecasting One of the steps‚ say the very first one‚ in the process of management is planning. Planning is understood as the process of setting goals and choosing the means to achieve these goals. Planning is essential for‚ without it‚ managers cannot organise people and resources effectively. Meaning and Definition Forecasting is fundamental to planning. Forecasts are statements about future‚ specifying the volume of sales to be achieved and equipment‚ materials and other inputs needed
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QUALITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative forecasting methods are based on educated opinions of appropriate persons 1. Delphi method: forecast is developed by a panel of experts who anonymously answer a series of questions; responses are fed back to panel members who then may change their original responses a- very time consuming and expensive b- new groupware makes this process much more feasible 2. Market research: panels‚ questionnaires‚ test markets‚ surveys‚ etc. 3. Product life-cycle
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1. The first step in evaluating a regression model is to determine whether the sign of the estimated slope term makes sense. The second step is to test whether or not the slope term is significantly different from zero. The appropriate statistical test to determine this is a t-test since the true regression error variance is generally unknown. The third check of regression is to evaluate what percent of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by variation in the independent variable
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DEMAND FORECASTING Demand forecasting is the process of predicting future average sales on the basis of historical data samples and market intelligence. The volatility of demand from an average level is supplied from the safety inventory. Any forecast is likely to be wrong‚ so the focus should be on understanding the range of potential forecast errors and the level of safety inventory that will cater for peak demand. An important additional calculation is forecast bias. This is the cumulative
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support and services • You gain real time data from various departments allowing quick and powerful decision making • Reduce paper work‚ duplication of entries and Manual entries. To summarize ERP system helps in increasing your productivity level‚ profits and altogether growth of our organization. 2. Ware House Management systems. a. Fox Fire WMS b. Eco RFID WMS Warehouse Management Systems are primarily designed to combine the functioning of hardware‚ software‚ and peripheral devices. Implementation
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Forecasting Methodology Forecasting is an integral part in planning the financial future of any business and allows the company to consider probabilities of current and future trends using existing data and facts. Forecasts are vital to every business organization and for every significant management decision. Forecasting‚ according to Armstrong (2001)‚ is the basis of corporate long-run planning. Many times‚ this unique approach is used not only to provide a baseline‚ but also to offer a prediction
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Demand Forecasting Demand forecasting • Why is it important • How to evaluate • Qualitative Methods • Causal Models • Time-Series Models • Summary Production and operations management Product Development long term medium term short term Product portifolio Purchasing Manufacturing Distribution Supply network designFacility Partner selection location Distribution network design and layout Derivatuve Supply Demand forecasting is product developmentcontract the starting ? point
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