decision tree we know that the decision to develop thoroughly has a probability of 0.4 in a good market and predicted gains of $500‚000. The second State of nature would be a moderate market reaction with a probability of .4 and predicted gains of $25‚000. The third state of nature is a poor market reaction with a probability of .2 with predicted gains of $1‚000. The expected monetary value (EMV) is determined by multiplying the probability in each state of nature by the predicted gains and then adding
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line. Erlang (a Danish Telephone engineer) began a study of congestion and waiting times in the completion of telephone calls. Operating Characteristic (performance Measure) for a waiting Line Model Probability that no units are in the system Probability that an arriving unit has to wait for service Average Number of units in waiting line or system Average Time a unit spends in waiting line or system Make a decision that balance desirable service level against the
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15 percent probability of a boom‚ a 75 percent chance of a normal economy‚ and a 10 percent chance of a recession. What is your expected rate of return on this stock? a. 5.00 percent b. 6.45 percent c. 7.30 percent d. 7.65 percent e. 8.30 percent EXPECTED RETURN a 61. The Inferior Goods Co. stock is expected to earn 14 percent in a recession‚ 6 percent in a normal economy‚ and lose 4 percent in a booming economy. The probability of a boom is
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Decision tree for Friday pressing Mr. Ward is trying to decide on how many CDs to press on the first night of the festival. His intuition combined with his experience allowed him to make some predictions of demand. These take the form of probabilities. “The probabilities may be subjective estimates from managers or from experts in a particular field‚ or they may reflect historical frequencies. If they are reasonably correct‚ they provide a decision maker with additional information that can dramatically
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Analyzing Waiting Lines Most people find waiting lines irritating – waiting is idle and nonproductive time. From a service system perspective‚ however‚ a line represents a demand for service. Think of a restaurant on a Friday night. As a customer it is an irritation to have to wait 40 plus minutes for a table‚ but from the restaurant’s perspective‚ if there is not a line‚ then that means there are empty tables. Idle services are not good. So management must balance waiting time with the
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Question 1) 1) Discuss puzzles and anomalies 2) Discuss three forms of market efficiency Marketefficiency is a measure of the availability(to all participants ina market) of the information that provides maximum opportunities tobuyers and sellers to effect transactions with minimum transactioncosts. Types of Efficiency: Operational efficiency: It refers to thecost to buyers and sellers of transactions in securities on theexchange. This may be promoted by creating as much competitionbetween
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The time at which the mailman delivers the mail follows a normal distribution with a mean of 2:00PM and a standard deviation of 15 minutes (20 pts) a) What is the probability that the mail will arrive before 1:50PM? b) What is the probability that the mail will arrive after 2:30PM? c) What is the probability that the mail will arrive between 1:40PM and 2:20PM? d) Between what two times (equally before the mean and equally after the mean) accounts for the mail being delivered
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DISTRIBUTIONS I. Concept of probability (3%) 1. Explain why the distribution B(n‚p) can be approximated by Poisson distribution with parameter if n tends to infinity‚ p 0‚ and = np can be considered constant. 2. Show that – and + are the turning points in the graph of the p.d.f. of normal distribution with mean and standard deviation . 3. What is the relationship between exponential distribution and Poisson distribution? II. Computation of probability (7%) 1. Let
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30 minutes appointments. Some of the patients take more or less than 30 minutes depending upon the type of dental work to be done. The following table shows the various categories of work‚ their probabilities and the time actually needed to complete the work category Time required in mins Probability Filling Crowning Cleaning Extraction Checkup 45 60 15 45 15 0.25 0.15 0.25 0.10 0.25 Simulate the dentist’s clinic for about four hours and determine the average waiting time for
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None 5. Credit: 6. Course Description: A study of descriptive statistics such as measures ofcentral tendency‚ measures of variability‚ and skewness; principles of couniing‚ permutation and combination; principles of probability which include additive rules‚ condiiional probability‚ multiplicative rules and Bayes ’ Rule; concepts
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