Exchange rate movement has been an important subject of macroeconomic analysis and market surveillance. Despite its importance‚ forecasting the exchange rate level has been a challenge for academics and market practitioners since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Empirical results from many of the exchange rate forecasting models in the literature have not yielded satisfactory results. This paper is constructed for the purpose of comparing the forecast performance of various competing models
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A brief history of Exchange rate of Bangladesh Since Bangladesh was the part of Pakistan called East Pakistan‚ shared the same currency and trade-policy history as the rest of Pakistan until the liberation of Bangladesh. Bangladeshi taka was created on January 1 1972. Pakistan rupees in circulation remained legal tender until replaced by the taka 1:1 beginning March 4 1972. The taka was set at par with the Indian rupee‚ and fixed to sterling at Tk 18.9677‚ or Tk 7.2797 to the United States dollar
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Assignment Topic 2 AUD/USD Exchange Rate The main movements of the AUD/USD exchange rate in the past eighteen months will be studied‚ as well as the underlying conditions that caused these specific movements to happen. Economic models and theories will be used to support the discussion and to analyse the reason for these fluctuations. Discussion will then take place to whether these movements have been a help or a hindrance to the overall health of the Australian economy. FIGURE 1.0
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Introduction – Determinants of Exchange rate ................................................................................. 3 2 Research papers .............................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Paper -1: Determinants of Exchange Rate Movements ............................................................. 4 2.2 Paper -2: Macroeconomic Determinants of Real Exchange Rates ............................
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EXCHANGE RATES The exchange rate is the price of one country’s currency in terms of another country’s currency Quoted exchange rates can be either direct or indirect‚ Direct: home currency per unit of foreign currency 39 Rupees per US Dollars 80 Rupees per Pound Indirect: foreign currency per unit of home currency 0.0255102 US Dollar per Indian Rupee 0.491594 Pound per Indian Rupee Appreciation of Currency Currency Appreciation means that the given currency
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BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS OF EXCHANGE-RATE CHANGES BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS OF EXCHANGE-RATE CHANGES Market Decisions On the marketing side‚ exchange rates can affect demand for a company’s products at home and abroad. A country such as Mexico may force down the value of its currency if its exports become too expensive owing to relatively high inflation. Even though inflation would cause the peso value of the Mexican products to rise‚ the devaluation means that it takes less foreign currency to
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Exchange rate policy The exchange rate of an economy affects aggregate demand through its effect on export and import prices‚ and policy makers may exploit this connection. Deliberately altering exchange rates to influence the macro-economic environment may be regarded as a type of monetary policy. Changes in exchanges rates initially work there way into an economy via their effect on prices. For example‚ if £1 exchanges for $1.50 on the foreign exchange market‚ a UK product selling for £10 in
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BIDS-PRP WORKING PAPER SERIES Exchange Rate Policy under Floating Regime in Bangladesh An Assessment and Strategic Policy Options Working Paper No. 2 Monzur Hossain * Mansur Ahmed∗∗ October‚ 2009 * Research Fellow‚ Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) ∗∗ Research Associate‚ Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) BIDS-PRP WORKING PAPER SERIES Working Paper No. 2 EXCHANGE RATE POLICY UNDER FLOATING REGIME IN BANGLADESH: AN ASSESSMENT AND STRATEGIC POLICY OPTIONS
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The CFO can forecast exchange rates by using either of two approaches‚ fundamental forecasting or technical forecasting. Fundamental forecasting uses trends in economic variables to predict future rates. The data can be plugged into an econometric model or evaluated on a more subjective basis. Technical forecasting uses past trends in exchange rates themselves to spot future trends in rates. Technical forecasters‚ or chartists‚ assume that if current exchange rates reflect all facts in the market
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Discuss whether an appreciation in the exchange rate is to the advantage of an economy. An appreciation is an increase in the rate of one currency in terms of another. A currency will appreciates when the demand for the currency is more that it supply. When a currency appreciates‚ the price of their goods and services will increase. This will then lead to higher price of exports and resulting in lower demand of exports. Thus export receipts fall. At the same time‚ the price of import goods
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