A Study of Oil Refining and Oil Markets

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STUDY ON OIL REFINING AND OIL MARKETS

Prepared for:

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Prepared by:

.
Buenos Aires – Calgary – Dubai – Houston London – Los Angeles – Moscow – Singapore January 2008

L2293/mg

Table of Contents -- i

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. II

INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................................1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................3 DEMAND OUTLOOK .................................................................................................................3 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION OUTLOOK .....................................................................................8 REFINING INDUSTRY IN THE STUDY REGION .....................................................................12 BIOFUELS ...............................................................................................................................16 REFINED PRODUCT TRADE FLOWS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPE ...........................18 CRUDE OIL PRICES................................................................................................................21 REFINING MARGINS...............................................................................................................28 OTHER EU POLICY-RELATED ISSUES ..................................................................................32

III A – HISTORICAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS.....................................................................................35 A-1 A-2 A-3 A-4 A-5 A-6 A-7 A-8 HISTORICAL DEMAND ............................................................................................35 PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS AND TAXATION POLICIES ......................................53 WORLD CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION........................................................................72 EUROPEAN CRUDE OIL TRADE FLOWS................................................................81 EUROPEAN UNION REFINED PRODUCT TRADE FLOWS .....................................88 REFINERY DEVELOPMENTS................................................................................ 101 REFINERY INVESTMENTS ................................................................................... 119 REFINERY ECONOMICS....................................................................................... 125 NORTH AMERICA PRICES AND MARGINS .......................................................... 130 NORTH WEST EUROPE........................................................................................ 131 ASIA ...................................................................................................................... 133 III B – NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK: 2007-2012 ...........................................................................................149 B-1 WORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY ............................................................................... 149 NON-OPEC CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION ................................................................ 150 OPEC CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION......................................................................... 160 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION OUTLOOK BY TYPE .................................................. 163 B-2 REFINED PRODUCT DEMAND .............................................................................169 EUROPE................................................................................................................ 169 NORTH AFRICA .................................................................................................... 176 CHINA ................................................................................................................... 177 INDIA ..................................................................................................................... 182 MIDDLE EAST...
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