Uzbekistan In 2030 The Future Demograph

UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC
October 2013

UZBEKISTAN IN 2030
KEY FINDINGS
SUMMARY
UZBEKISTAN AND THE WORLD IN 2030
POPULATION PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
POPULATION SHIFT
AGEING
MEN AND WOMEN
MARRIAGE AND DIVORCE
BIRTHS AND FERTILITY
LIFE EXPECTANCY AND DEATHS
MIGRATION
DIVERSITY
URBANISATION
CITIES

UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Key findings
 In 2030, the population of Uzbekistan will reach 34.1 million, an increase of 19.6% from 2012.
 Uzbekistan will be the 50th largest country in the world in 2030.
 As Uzbekistan’s population grows between 2012 and 2030 it will age, due to falling birth rates and fertility and an increase in older age groups.
 Population growth will be driven by huge increases in the population aged 60-79 which will expand by
134%. Within this group the 60-69 year olds alone will increase by 157%, or 1.5 million people.
 The marriage rate is forecast to fall from 8.3 per ‘000 people in 2012 to 7.0 per ‘000 people in 2030.
 In Uzbekistan the fertility rate was 2.3 children per female in 2012. In 2019 it will fall to 2.1, equal to the replacement rate. It will continue to fall until it reaches 1.9 in 2030.
 Net migration will be negative between 2012 and 2030, meaning more people will be leaving the country than arriving. Therefore natural change (births minus deaths) will be the sole driver of population growth in this period, averaging 349,745 per annum.
 The rural population is growing. Between 2012 and 2030 it will grow by 10.0%. Meanwhile the urban population will increase by 36.6%.

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Summary

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Uzbekistan and the world in 2030

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Population past, present and future
Age Structure of the Population at a Glance 1980-2030
(Each dot represents a single-year age group)

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN
Reading the chart: This “heat chart” depicts changes in the age structure of the population over time. Each dot represents the number of people in a specific
(single year) age group in a given year. Accordingly, a dark red dot shows the largest concentration of people, by age, in a particular year while deep blue dots refer to the lowest concentrations. The areas of red therefore represent a large potential market in demographic terms.

© Euromonitor International

 In 2030, the population of Uzbekistan will reach
34.1 million, an increase of 19.6% from 2012.
 23.4% of the population will be aged 0-14
 68.7% of the population will be aged 15-64
 7.9% of the population will be aged 65+
 There is a red hot spot evident on the chart indicating a large proportion of the population will fall between the ages of 8 and 21 in 2030.
This segment will account for 23.2% of total population and the trend can be explained by an elevated number of live births in the late
2000s and 2010s.
 There is a smaller hot spot relating to population aged 35-42 years in 2030 when this segment will account for 13.7% of total population. This trend can be explained by an elevated number of live births in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
 As Uzbekistan’s population grows between
2012 and 2030 it will age, due to falling birth rates and fertility and an increase in older age groups. UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Population shift
 During the 1980s the population grew at an annual average rate of
2.52%. After this point it decelerated decade by decade until the 2000s. In the future it will accelerate slightly, reaching 1.27% in the 2010s, before falling back to annual average growth of 0.81% in the 2020s.
 The population will first surpass 30.0 million in 2016 and by 2030 it will grow to 34.1 million, more than twice the size it was in 1980.
 Population growth in 2012-2030 will be driven by huge increases in the population aged 60-79 which will expand by 134%. Within this group the 60-69 year olds alone will increase by 157%, or 1.5 million people.  Population aged 0-29 years will fall by 5.9% in 2012-2030 due to falling live births between 2000 and 2030.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Ageing
 The population is ageing and the median age will increase from 24.8 years in 2012, to 32.0 years in
2030. The Uzbekistan population will age at a faster rate than the Asia Pacific average – where the median age was 30.9 years in 2012 and is expected to climb to 36.8 in 2030.
 In 2012 there were nearly seven 0-14 year olds for each 65+ year old. However the 65+ year olds will grow during 2012-2030 so that by 2030 there will be three 0-14 year olds for every 65+ year old.
 The number of 15-64s will grow as a share of total population from 66.7% of the total population in
2012 to 68.7% in 2030.
 Between 2012 and 2030 the population aged 65+ is due to grow by 1.5 million or 119% to reach 2.7 million. By 2030 this group will make up over a twelfth of the country’s population.
 The very elderly (the 80+) will grow by 51,573 in
2012-2030 (a 19.6% increase). In 2030 they will make up 0.9% of the population, the same as in
2012.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Men and women
Age Pyramid in 2012 and 2030

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

© Euromonitor International

UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Marriage and divorce
Marriage and Divorce Rates 1980-2030
Rate per ‘000 population

12.0

10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Marriage Rates

Divorce Rates

Population by Marital Status 1980s-2020s
% of total population

100%

 The marriage rate is forecast to fall from 8.3 per ‘000 people in 2012 to 7.0 per ‘000 people in 2030. In 2012
60.1% of the population were married and this will fall to 59.8% in 2030.
 Average age at first marriage will increase for men from 27.3 years in 2012 to 28.2 years in 2030.
Meanwhile, average age at first marriage will also increase for women from 22.0 years in 2012 to 23.2 years in 2030.
 The divorce rate will change almost imperceptibly to
0.5 per ‘000 in 2030, down from 0.6 per ‘000 in 2012.
4.2% of the population will be divorced in 2030, the same rate as in 2012.
 When looking at single people it is important to bear in mind the data refer to total population, rather than simply the adult population, which has an impact on the number of singles. Single people will total 10.0 million in 2030, a 20.7% increase on the 2012 figure of 8.2 million. This can be explained by an increase in total population, plus the delaying of marriage.

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1980s
Married

1990s
Divorced

2000s
Widowed

2010s
Single

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International

2020s
Unknown

 Widowed people will total 2.0 million in 2030, an 18.7% rise over the 2012 figure of 1.7 million.

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Births and fertility
 In Uzbekistan the fertility rate was 2.3 children per female in 2012. In 2019 it will fall to 2.1, equal to the replacement rate. It will continue to fall until it reaches 1.9 in 2030.
 The average age at childbirth will increase from 27.8 years in 2012 to 29.2 years in 2030.
 The birth rate reached 21.8 births per ‘000 in 2012, higher than the Asia Pacific average of 17.4 in 2012.
The birth rate will fall to 14.8 births per ‘000 by 2030, remaining higher than the regional average of 13.4.
Despite population growth the number of live births will actually fall every year over 2012-2030, in 2030 there will be 505,810 live births, 116,837 or 18.8% fewer live births than in 2012.
 The number of women of childbearing age (15-49 years) will grow by 15.3% between 2012 and 2030. In
2012 56.0% of the female population were of childbearing age but by 2030 this proportion will fall to 53.7%.
Mean Age at Childbirth 1980s-2020s
30.0

35.0

29.0
28.0

30.0

27.0

25.0

Years

Per ‘000 inhabitants

Birth Rates 1980s-2020s
40.0

20.0

26.0

25.0
24.0

15.0

23.0

10.0

22.0

5.0

21.0
20.0

1980s

1990s

2000s

2010s

2020s

1980s

1990s

2000s

2010s

2020s

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Life expectancy and deaths
 Life expectancy will increase from 68.5 years in 2012 to
72.4 years in 2030. This change will be driven by healthier lifestyles increasing life expectancy.
 Healthy life expectancy will increase from 60.1 years in
2012 to 64.0 years in 2030, which means the gap between the two measures will remain the same over time.  The death rate was 6.7 per ‘000 in 2012, lower than the
Asia Pacific average of 7.1. In 2030 the Uzbekistan figure will grow to 7.8 deaths per ‘000, still lower than the
Asia Pacific figure of 8.1 that year.
 The rate of natural change will remain positive between
2012 and 2030, meaning there will be more births than deaths. However, the trend will decline as the number of births falls and the number of deaths increases. The average natural rate of change between 2012 and 2030 will be 11.2 per ‘000 inhabitants or from 431,546 to
240,772 more births than deaths per year.

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Migration
 According to the World Bank, Uzbekistan had 1.2 million immigrants in 2010 accounting for 4.2% of the population.
 This figure was less than neighbouring Kazakhstan, which had 19.5% of immigrants in the population in 2010, but more than Kyrgyzstan (4.0%), Tajikistan
(4.0%), Turkmenistan (4.0%) and Afghanistan (0.3%).
 Net migration will be negative between 2012 and 2030, meaning more people will be leaving the country than arriving. On average 39,316 more people will leave the country than arrive every year in 2012-2030. Therefore natural change (births minus deaths) will be the sole driver of population growth. This will decelerate over time and it will average 349,745 per annum between 2012 and 2030.
Net Migration and Natural Change 2000-2030
500
400
300

‘000

200
100
-100
-200
-300
2000

2005

2010

2015

Natural Change

2020

2025

2030

Migration

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN/World Bank

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Diversity
 Uzbekistan’s ethnic make up is very homogenous. In 2012 82.8% of the population was comprised of
Uzbeks. By 2030 this figure will increase slightly to 82.9%.
 The second largest group in 2012 was the Tajiks, accounting for 5.1% of total population. This figure will remain the same in 2030.
 Uzbek is the country’s official language. 77.5% of the country spoke Uzbek in 2012, making it the most widely spoken language. In 2030 this figure will increase to 77.9%.
 The second most widely spoken language in 2012 was Tajik, with 4.9% of the population speaking it. In
2030 this figure will remain constant.
Population by Ethnicity 2012/2030

Population by Language 2012/2030

100%

100%

90%

90%
Other

70%

Tatars

60%

Kazakhs

50%

Karakalpaks

40%

80%
% of total population

% of total population

80%

70%

Other

60%

Russian

50%

30%

Russians

20%

Tajiks

20%

Uzbeks

10%

10%
0%
2012

© Euromonitor International

2030

Tajik

40%
Uzbek

30%

0%

2012
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

2030

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Urbanisation
 Uzbekistan’s population is predominantly rural. In 2012,
36.2% of the population lived in urban areas and by 2030 approximately 41.4% of the population will be living in an urban setting.
 The rural population is growing. Between 2012 and 2030 it will grow by 10.0%. Meanwhile the urban population will increase by 36.6%.

Rural and Urban Population in
Uzbekistan in 2030

Urban

Rural

 Uzbekistan is less urbanised than the Asia Pacific average.
43.0% of the region’s population was urban in 2012, rising to
53.7% in 2030.

240.0

Growth Index of Urban and Rural Population
1980-2030

Rural and Urban Population in Asia
Pacific in 2030

220.0
1980 = 100

200.0

180.0
160.0
Urban

140.0
Rural

120.0
100.0
80.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total

© Euromonitor International

Urban

Rural
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030

Cities
 Uzbekistan had just one city with a population in excess of one million in 2012, Tashkent.
 All the 10 major cities are located in the East of the country except for Nukus.
 The biggest city in 2012 was
Tashkent and will remain so in 2030. 21.5% of all urban population lived in Tashkent in 2012, and this will rise to
22.2% in 2030.
 As Uzbekistan continues its process of urbanisation, all the 10 major cities will undergo significant growth between 2012 and 2030. The cities which will be the fastest growing over this period will be Nukus and Margilan which will grow by 55.9% and 55.8% respectively in 2012-2030.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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DATA
POPULATION BY 5-YEAR AGE GROUP
MALE POPULATION BY 5-YEAR AGE GROUP

FEMALE POPULATION BY 5-YEAR AGE
GROUP
VITAL STATISTICS

MARRIAGE AND DIVORCE
LIFE EXPECTANCY
POPULATION BY ETHNICITY

POPULATION BY LANGUAGE
POPULATION BY CITY

DATA

Population by 5-year age group
‘000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
TOTAL
Median Age

2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2,627
2,830
3,194
3,072
2,567
2,203
1,890
1,636
1,602
1,328
927
544
395
480
322
244
182
26,044
22.4

2,901
2,584
2,802
3,153
2,996
2,472
2,114
1,815
1,571
1,535
1,259
861
490
340
391
240
245
27,769
24.0

2,998
2,621
2,661
3,032
3,099
2,659
2,217
1,911
1,625
1,534
1,368
997
595
345
345
271
263
28,541
24.8

2,932
2,840
2,567
2,783
3,116
2,942
2,422
2,072
1,775
1,526
1,477
1,188
788
430
279
294
279
29,710
26.0

2,883
2,908
2,817
2,542
2,742
3,058
2,885
2,374
2,027
1,725
1,467
1,394
1,088
693
354
209
328
31,495
28.0

2,706
2,852
2,886
2,792
2,504
2,688
3,003
2,834
2,327
1,973
1,661
1,388
1,281
959
574
268
296
32,991
30.1

2,499
2,675
2,830
2,862
2,753
2,451
2,635
2,951
2,781
2,268
1,903
1,575
1,279
1,135
798
436
314
34,147
32.0

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

© Euromonitor International

UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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DATA

Male population by 5-year age group
‘000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
TOTAL
Median Age

2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

1,338
1,441
1,624
1,558
1,290
1,108
944
800
782
660
447
258
194
222
141
101
53
12,960
21.9

1,476
1,315
1,426
1,602
1,518
1,239
1,059
901
763
743
618
408
227
162
174
99
84
13,814
23.5

1,525
1,334
1,354
1,542
1,572
1,337
1,109
952
794
738
665
477
273
161
155
113
93
14,197
24.2

1,491
1,444
1,306
1,416
1,583
1,490
1,212
1,034
877
735
706
573
365
192
128
123
100
14,774
25.5

1,467
1,478
1,431
1,294
1,396
1,553
1,459
1,184
1,006
845
698
654
512
310
152
91
120
15,646
27.5

1,377
1,449
1,465
1,418
1,274
1,368
1,522
1,428
1,154
971
803
648
586
436
245
108
109
16,362
29.4

1,272
1,359
1,437
1,453
1,398
1,247
1,339
1,491
1,394
1,116
926
748
582
501
346
174
113
16,897
31.1

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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DATA

Female population by 5-year age group
‘000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
TOTAL
Median Age

2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

1,289
1,389
1,571
1,514
1,277
1,096
947
836
820
668
480
287
201
258
181
143
129
13,084
22.9

1,425
1,269
1,376
1,551
1,478
1,233
1,055
914
807
792
641
453
263
177
217
141
161
13,955
24.6

1,473
1,288
1,307
1,491
1,526
1,321
1,108
959
831
796
703
519
321
184
190
158
170
14,345
25.3

1,440
1,397
1,261
1,367
1,533
1,452
1,210
1,038
899
791
771
615
423
238
151
171
179
14,936
26.6

1,416
1,431
1,386
1,249
1,347
1,505
1,427
1,190
1,021
881
770
740
575
383
203
119
208
15,849
28.6

1,329
1,403
1,421
1,374
1,230
1,321
1,480
1,406
1,173
1,002
858
740
695
522
329
160
187
16,629
30.8

1,227
1,315
1,393
1,409
1,355
1,204
1,296
1,459
1,387
1,152
978
827
697
634
452
262
202
17,250
32.9

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

© Euromonitor International

UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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DATA

Vital statistics
2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

22.3

22.3

21.8

20.8

18.7

16.5

14.8

584.4

621.1

622.6

617.1

588.7

543.6

505.8

6.6

6.7

6.7

6.8

6.9

7.2

7.8

Deaths (‘000)

171.5

185.4

191.1

200.4

217.7

238.5

265.0

Natural Change (‘000)

412.8

435.7

431.5

416.8

371.0

305.1

240.8

15.7

15.7

15.1

14.0

11.8

9.3

7.1

-134.8

-56.3

-40.4

-35.8

-40.1

-40.1

-40.4

-5.2

-2.0

-1.4

-1.2

-1.3

-1.2

-1.2

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

27.0

27.6

27.8

28.0

28.4

28.8

29.2

Birth Rates
Live Births (‘000)
Death Rates

Rate of Natural Change
Net Migration (‘000)

Rate of Net Migration
Fertility Rates
Age at Childbirth

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN
Note: Birth and death rates and the rates of natural change and net migration refer to the number per '000 population and fertility rates to the number of children born per female. Age at childbirth refers to average age of women in years..

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UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

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DATA

Marriage and divorce
2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

184,238

225,134

236,026

241,307

246,164

244,775

236,269

7.0

8.1

8.3

8.2

7.9

7.5

7.0

15,792

16,677

17,062

16,760

16,262

15,829

15,844

Divorce Rates

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

Married (‘000)

15,766.8

16,704.7

17,144.2

17,819.2

18,863.6

19,746.5

20,431.7

Divorced (‘000)

1,071.5

1,156.3

1,190.7

1,241.4

1,317.4

1,380.4

1,429.0

Widowed (‘000)

1,540.6

1,621.9

1,662.0

1,724.7

1,823.0

1,907.0

1,972.4

Single (‘000)

7,394.8

7,998.2

8,248.4

8,616.4

9,164.6

9,615.3

9,959.7

270.7

288.2

296.1

308.2

326.6

342.1

354.0

27.5

27.2

27.3

27.5

27.7

27.9

28.2

21.2

21.8

22.0

22.2

22.6

22.9

23.2

Marriages (Number)
Marriage Rates
Divorces (Number)

Unknown (‘000)
Age of Males at First
Marriage
Age of Women at First
Marriage

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Note: Marriage and divorce rates refer to the number per '000 population. Age at first marriage refers to the average age in years.

© Euromonitor International

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DATA

Life expectancy
2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

Life Expectancy

67.2

68.0

68.5

69.3

70.5

71.5

72.4

Life Expectancy: Males

64.1

64.9

65.5

66.3

67.5

68.6

69.6

Life Expectancy: Females

70.5

71.2

71.7

72.5

73.5

74.5

75.4

Healthy Life Expectancy

58.5

59.6

60.1

60.9

62.0

63.0

64.0

Healthy Life Expectancy:
Males

57.0

58.5

59.1

59.9

61.1

62.2

63.2

Healthy Life Expectancy:
Females

60.0

60.6

61.1

61.9

62.9

63.9

64.8

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN
Note: Data refer to life and healthy life expectancy at birth in years.

© Euromonitor International

UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

PASSPORT 23

DATA

Population by ethnicity
‘000

2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

21,510

22,988

23,637

24,612

26,097

27,339

28,298

Tajiks

1,328

1,418

1,458

1,518

1,609

1,685

1,744

Russians

1,113

1,157

1,184

1,228

1,298

1,358

1,405

Karakalpaks

709

766

790

825

877

919

952

Kazakhs

699

737

756

785

830

869

899

Tatars

264

271

277

287

303

317

328

Other

420

431

440

456

482

504

521

26,044

27,769

28,541

29,710

31,495

32,991

34,147

Uzbeks

TOTAL

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International

UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

PASSPORT 24

DATA

Population by language
‘000

2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

20,015

21,495

22,130

23,077

24,504

25,688

26,598

Tajik

1,262

1,354

1,393

1,453

1,542

1,617

1,674

Russian

1,091

1,139

1,167

1,212

1,283

1,344

1,391

Other

3,677

3,781

3,850

3,968

4,166

4,343

4,485

26,044

27,769

28,541

29,710

31,495

32,991

34,147

Uzbek

TOTAL

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International

UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

PASSPORT 25

DATA

Population by city
‘000

2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

Tashkent
Namangan
Samarkand
Andijon
Nukus
Qarshi
Buxoro
Quqon
Margilan
Fargona

2,138
408
357
353
254
214
240
206
164
189

2,184
447
394
376
284
234
248
217
184
187

2,228
466
411
389
297
243
254
223
192
189

2,321
498
440
412
319
260
265
235
206
194

2,541
561
496
459
362
292
291
261
234
209

2,826
635
563
517
412
331
325
293
266
230

3,134
712
632
577
463
371
361
326
299
253

9,553
16,492
26,044

10,059
17,711
27,769

10,340
18,202
28,541

10,827
18,883
29,710

11,767
19,728
31,495

12,865
20,126
32,991

14,123
20,024
34,147

Urban Population
Rural Population
TOTAL

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International

UZBEKISTAN IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

PASSPORT 26

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