Travel Demand Forecasting Gold Coast, Queensland
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Traffic Analysis Zone
Chapter 3: Trip Generation
Chapter 4: Trip Distribution
Chapter 5: Traffic Assignment
Chapter 6: Conclusions
1. Land use analysis introduction
In 2012, the current population of Gold Coast is approximately 540,000 with an increasing number of 13,000 to 16,000 per year and it is estimated that the population of Gold Coast will approach 800,000 by 2031 (Australia Bureau Statistics, 2012). In addition, the population projections released in 2011 indicated that the annual change of the population of the Gold Coast City Council is expected to be 1.6% by 2031 (Queensland Government Population Projections, 2011)
(Source: Goal Coast City Council website)
For a Civil Engineer, the mission of analysing the land should be undertaken before familiarising the model network. The necessity of this stage is to check the current of future system could accommodate the travel demand. For new cities, by applying the land use analysis, the engineers could determine the location of roads that they should construct also the number of lanes For existing cities, we could check whether a road network plan can accommodate demand in future (10 years later), what the travel demand during peak hour for each link (Qu, 2012). By the next 20 years, The Gold Coast City Council will deal with an enormous increase in residents as well as infrastructures such as road system, rail way, dwelling units, etc. Thus, the civil engineers have to undertake the mission of conducting the land use analysis and transportation planning methodology. 2. Transportation Planning methodology.
Transportation is a service offered via transportation infrastructure (with capacity), a movement of passengers and goods from one place to another. The term Transportation planning refer to use system and analytical tools to analyze, forecast, and evaluate transportation demand and supply The aim is to deliver a systematically planned transportation infrastructure which could be fulfilled the demand and supply By having an effective transportation planning, it could allow people to maximize the maximum efficiency of transportation infrastructures in the planning level and also to construct roads to fulfil the demand in next 10 years or 20 years (Xiao Bo, 2012). The planning method includes 4 steps which are:
* Trip generation (per zone basis)
Determine the flow of travelers per day leaving and entering each zone The number of passengers entering a zones is Attraction
The number of Passengers leaving a zones is Production
1 Output: Trip production and attraction for zones * Trip distribution (per activity basis)
Based on the Production and Attraction obtained in the last step, determine the flow of travelers per day from origin zone to destination zone (O-D pair) 2 Output: O to D volume for different O-D pairs
* Mode choice
For each O-D pair, several modes could be chosen (e.g. bus or car) The impacts of OD trips on the road network are not the same In project 1, only Car mode is considered
* Route Choice
One OD trip with respect to car could be accomplished by different routes. Route choice examines how travellers will choose their routes. The results for route choice are traffic volumes for each road section in the network. 3. The study area and motivation of this project.
In Project 1, the study Area is bounded with 6 suburbs inside which are Molendinar, South Port, Packwood, Helensvale, Arundel and Labrador. In addition, the total area of this project is approximately 39.2 km2 and the travel rate from external locations such as Brisbane, Toowoomba; Southern suburbs play an important role in establishing the travel demand for the study area.
Figure 1. The overview of the study area (source: Google Maps...