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Section 1. Preface 2 Section 2. Executive Summary 5
Section 3. Oasis
Section 4. Sandstorm
Section 5. The Fertile Gulf
Section 6. Comparing the Three Scenarios
Section 7. Conclusion
Annex: Recommended Reading
The United Arab Emirates and the World: Scenarios to 2025 Section 1: Preface
To explore the long-term effects of the challenges and opportunities faced by the UAE and the GCC countries in general, the World Economic Forum developed a set of scenarios for the GCC countries covering a period of 18 years to the year 2025. These scenarios, The GCC Countries and the World: Scenarios to 2025, were featured at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007 in Davos and publicly launched at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East in Jordan in May 2007. In response to continued interest in the region and
Since the turn of the century, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been riding a boom of high and rising oil prices and robust growth in property markets. Its economy has been growing at an average of over 7% per annum in real terms between 2000 and 2007. A significant proportion of the resulting assets are being re-invested in the country at both the federal and local level in a bid to develop an economy that does not rely on energy resources; such reinvestments take the form of public-private partnerships, infrastructure investment and schemes to support specific programmes such as education and training. However, the country and the region still face important political, economic, social and environmental challenges. Externally, there is the increasing threat of geopolitical instability, including unresolved national and intercultural relationships which have the capacity to negatively affect the UAE's economic and social structure. Likewise, a number of global economic risks threaten the UAE's smooth international expansion, both in terms of volatility in regional and international markets, and the possibility of increasing protectionism in the global trading system. Internally, the UAE also faces challenges in resolving social and political imbalances, including unemployment, skewed income distribution and fractures in the federal framework. Finally, environmental pressures threaten the availability of water resources, marine areas and an unpolluted atmosphere, all of which are required to support the UAE's growing population and its burgeoning tourism industry. At the World Economic Forum, we are committed to improving the state of the world by shaping the global, regional and industry agendas, and promoting dialogue on key issues that face our...