The Predicting of Dominant Design in Mobile Phone

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The predicting of dominant design in MP3 player
Yuri Lee, Industrial design, Chonbuk National Univ. Jong-Youl Yang, Industrial design, Chonbuk National Univ

Abstract
This research has the purpose that forecasts MP3 design which can dominates the market by trend analysis. For the purpose of this study, we practiced trend analysis of MP3 player. We decided on design factors and levels of the factors after collecting 227 MP3 products released from 2001 from 2007 now, and practiced trend analysis used a SPSS program. Then, we identified a design trend of MP3 player. As the result of trend analysis of MP3 products in this research, it is not clearly show up regular trend. Except the Apple, there are not companies which are all in MP3 player market. In conclusion, future competition will be decided by price in comparison with function, compatibility to various contents, extension of devices related to MP3 and product design based on miniaturization, high-tech function, and mass storage. Especially, MP3 player will have a great influence on design because it has great the degree of freedom and short product life cycle by the nature of product.

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Keywords: MP3 player, trend analysis, dominant design

1. Introduction
iPod have 26% portion of market share for worldwide MP3 Player market in 2005, also iPod have 51% portion for total revenue of Apple. Occupying 73% of US market, 72% of HDD type products for global market, iPod lead MP3 player market. (Lee,EunMin(01-SEP, 2006), Current Market Trend of MP3 player, IT Strategy, p.30.) But iTunes operates limited service only in North America, Japan and Europe. So in other countries, iPod have comparative lower market share and other small and medium companies have market shares. Even in iTunes service area, debate on unfair trade of exclusive DRM continues, also there are antipathies due to worry for iPod's market monopoly. Like such, because areas of lower market share of iPod exist and anti-iPod areas exists, major global IT enterprise, MS, Samsung Electronics, Matsushita Electronics, Nokia are entering MP3 marker after 2003, are doing their best R&D and market making. Because popularization and technology standard for MP3 player already completed, taking the lead in compatibility to various contents, extension of devices related to MP3

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and product design based on miniaturization, high-tech function, and mass storage is major factor of dominating markets. But nowadays price in comparison with function is making almost equal. And for the aspect on compatibility to various contents and device market related to MP3, enterprises are executing joining hands strategies. So, the most important thing is to issue the design which dominates markets in relation with design based on miniaturization, high-tech function and mass storage. (Electronic parts institute, JUN-2006, market trend of MP3 player) But this is possible only when forecasting dominant design. This research has the purpose that forecasts MP3 design which can dominates the market by trend analysis.

For the purpose of this study

1-1. We considered about MP3 player, MP3 player industry and trend analysis

1-2. As an empirical research, we practiced trend analysis of MP3 player. We decided on design factors and levels of the factors after collecting 227 MP3

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products released from 2001 from 2007 now, and practiced trend analysis used a SPSS program. Then, we identified a design trend of MP3 player.

1-3. We inferred the design that can be dominant by the future mayor through the analysis results, and concluded.

As the scope of our study, we used MP3 players’pictures that could search in the Internet and we exclude the first MP3 players made in 1997-1999 year. This study can become a base of scientific study as present the theoretical basis that can present future direction of a design, and can be used momentously to workinglevel officials taking charge of a design as important competitive...
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