One of the well accepted clichés of our time claims that we are living in a world of major and rapid transformations (Rosenau, 1990). A systematic analysis of historical cycles of capitalism shows that globalization is in a time of transition and perhaps a emergence of a new cycle, with peculiarities that may point to intense changes in the economic system. From the main approaches of Immanuel Wallerstein and his theory of world-systems supported by the Kondratieff cycles, It is possible to analyze the historical capitalism and the ramifications towards a new globalization. In order to outline the globalization waves and find out if we are having the end of a cycle, is important to think aboutf the long recession since 2008, if it will mean a period of significant development, or if we are about to experience the “big bifurcation” toward a completely new, post-capitalist system in the next decades. (Giesen, 2010) The well known Kondratieff waves are critical to this type of world social processes because these long waves of economic growth are a primary vehicle for long term and fundamental, technological change in the world economy. It is possible to use it to better understand about the current period we are in and the changes we are about to become aware of. Ian Gordon is a forecaster that based on the Kondratieff cycles tries to predict the likelihood of major economic and financial events by employing the long wave principle and in his predictions is clear to see that we are in the end o a cycle of recession that is supposed to be long. Globalization is the term most often used to identify the current changes affecting the current economic scenario, talking up flexibility of capital and labor, and transnationalization. What Wallerstein analyzed is: what is the factor that gives the current moment an innovative feature, something completely different in world history? By the world-systems theory, capitalism, through distinct world economies acquired a worldwide dimension over time. In the historical perspective of capitalism, when realized in the long term, it is seen to be possible to identify some concepts that characterize changes in its development, and repetitions: the interstate system, the center and periphery relationship, the moments of capital accumulation and financial expansion, the interdependence of various regions of the globe. The ways in which world economies are settled within the development of the capitalist system were specific to each time, each with its own characteristics. Wallerstein interpret the phenomenon of Globalization as a phase transition that passes the capitalist system. We are current in the fifth wave turn down, or economic winter as some authors call it. It is viable to observe below with the “Post- Kondratieff” waves and phases table:
Source: Warner, J. 2012.
The globalization propagated in the 90s with all its "originality", prevents us to realize that actually there is historic crisis. As the changes occurring not have well-defined rules, it is better to understand the period as a phase transition and changes in the world system. Despite being the 90s considered as main reference to globalization, its explanation as a phenomenon of capitalism is much earlier, divided into two temporal axes that extend to the present, the first started in 1945 and the second around 1450 (Wallerstein, 2003, p. 72-73). The A phase of the Fourth Kondratieff cycle corresponds to the apogee of the United States in the world system after 1945. The post-war situation allowed this country an enormous productive superiority, promoting longer expansion phase of production in the capitalist economy, generating great wealth and also great tension. The immediate goals of the United States after the war were favorable to maintain stability and reestablish their economic dominance to the rest of the world. For this, were created international institutions like the UN, IMF and World Bank, for which...
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