Rice Production

Topics: Regression analysis, Linear regression, International Rice Research Institute Pages: 6 (1781 words) Published: August 31, 2008
I. Introduction
The most important food crop in the Philippines is rice, a staple food in most of the country. It is produced all throughout Luzon, the Western Visayas, Southern Mindanao, and Central Mindanao. 9.5 billion tons of palay were produced in 1989 almost. In 1990 palay, which caused a 27 percent value added in agriculture and 3.5 percent of GNP. Per hectare yields have generally been low in comparison with other Asian countries. Since the mid-1960s, however, yields have increased substantially as a result of the cultivation of high-yielding varieties developed in the mid-1960s at the International Rice Research Institute located in the Philippines. The proportion of "miracle" rice in total output rose from zero in 1965-66 to 81 percent in 1981-82. Average productivity increased to 2.3 tons per hectare (2.8 tons on irrigated farms) by 1983. By the late 1970s, the country had changed from a net importer to a net exporter of rice, albeit on a small scale. In the 1980s, however, rice production encountered problems. Average annual growth for 1980-85 declined to a mere 0.9 percent, as contrasted with 4.6 percent for the preceding fifteen years. Growth of value added in the rice industry also fell in the 1980s. Tropical storms and droughts, the general economic downturn of the 1980s, and the 1983-85 economic crisis all contributed to this decline. Crop loans dried up, prices of agricultural inputs increased, and palay prices declined. Fertilizer and plant nutrient consumption dropped 15 percent. Farmers were squeezed by rising debts and declining income. Hectarage devoted to rice production, level during the latter half of the 1970s, fell an average of 2.4 percent per annum during the first half of the 1980s, with the decline primarily in marginal, nonirrigated farms. As a result, in 1985, the last full year of the Marcos regime, the country imported 538,000 tons of rice. The situation improved somewhat in the late 1980s, and smaller amounts of rice were imported. However, in 1990 the country experienced a severe drought. Output fell by 1.5 percent, forcing the importation of an estimated 400,000 tons of rice. In few years, we may have to squeeze out whatever is left of the country’s rice stock. This paper aims to find out what factors affect the production of rice in the Philippines to be able to formulate policies which may give the Filipinos more than enough hope and promise to help Filipinos on the way not only to rice sustainability, but also to national food security.

II.Statement of the problem and object of the analysis


This paper attempts to analyze Palay Production in the Philippines from the first semester of 1991 to the second semester of 2002 as affected by the size of land used for planting palay, amount of rain, and advancement of technology. Specific:

More specification, this paper answers the following questions:

1.Does each of the following variables has significant effect on Palay Production. a.Area of land allotted for planting palay.
b.Amount of rainfall.
c.Advancement of technology.
2.Is there a significant effect on rice production given that the area of land allotted for planting palay, amount of rainfall, and advancement of technology are combined.

III.Specification of the model
This paper utilized a multiple linear regression model which can be described as follows:

PROD = b0 + b1AREA + b2RAIN + b3TECH

b = parameters estimates
PROD = volume of rice produced
AREA = area of land allotted for planting palay
RAIN = amount of rainfall in the areas
TECH = advancement of technology in the agricultural sector

Furthermore, to determine the individual level of significance of every independent variable, the t-statistic will be used. In order to estimate the values of coefficient, the Least Square Method was used, with a confidence level of 95 percent, while to probe into to over-all significance to these variables to the...
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