Quantitative Introduction to Business Risk
Statistics 5311
Applied Statistics for Management I
Textbook: See Current Syllabus
Prerequisites: See Current UT Dallas Catalog for Educational and Course Prerequisites
Access to a Statistical Package ( for example EXCEL with the Data Analysis Toolpack Add-in, or MINITAB, or SAS, or SPSS, etc.)
I will be using Microsoft EXCEL.
Instructor: John J. Wiorkowski, Professor of Statistics Wiorkow@utdallas.edu
Telephone: 972-883-2274 (USA, on Central Standard Time)
What is Statistics?
Humorous:
The Science of drawing a precise line between an unwarranted assumption and a forgone conclusion.
The Science of stating precisely what you don’t know.
Popular Conceptions:
Facts Demographics
Census Counts Product Sales
Touchdowns in American Football Runs scored in British Cricket
Economic Projections Sales Forecasts
Market Projections Consumer Price Index
Probability Odds
Gambling “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” (Mark Twain)
Actually, “Statistics” encompasses all of the above
Popular Concept: You can prove anything with Statistics
In fact, if you think of the word “prove” in its mathematical sense, that is that things are either true or false, then in fact you can’t prove anything with statistics.
Statistics uses mathematics, but it generalizes the concept of “true or false”.
EXAMPLE: YOU LAUNCH A NEW PRODUCT
Mathematics: It Will Fail or It Will Succeed
0. 1
As a decision maker, you cannot afford to have absolute certainty. Accordingly you must assess the risks (as measured by probability) and make your decisions in a world of uncertainty.
Statistics: It Will Fail It Will Succeed
Applied Statistics for Management I
Textbook: See Current Syllabus
Prerequisites: See Current UT Dallas Catalog for Educational and Course Prerequisites
Access to a Statistical Package ( for example EXCEL with the Data Analysis Toolpack Add-in, or MINITAB, or SAS, or SPSS, etc.)
I will be using Microsoft EXCEL.
Instructor: John J. Wiorkowski, Professor of Statistics Wiorkow@utdallas.edu
Telephone: 972-883-2274 (USA, on Central Standard Time)
What is Statistics?
Humorous:
The Science of drawing a precise line between an unwarranted assumption and a forgone conclusion.
The Science of stating precisely what you don’t know.
Popular Conceptions:
Facts Demographics
Census Counts Product Sales
Touchdowns in American Football Runs scored in British Cricket
Economic Projections Sales Forecasts
Market Projections Consumer Price Index
Probability Odds
Gambling “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” (Mark Twain)
Actually, “Statistics” encompasses all of the above
Popular Concept: You can prove anything with Statistics
In fact, if you think of the word “prove” in its mathematical sense, that is that things are either true or false, then in fact you can’t prove anything with statistics.
Statistics uses mathematics, but it generalizes the concept of “true or false”.
EXAMPLE: YOU LAUNCH A NEW PRODUCT
Mathematics: It Will Fail or It Will Succeed
0. 1
As a decision maker, you cannot afford to have absolute certainty. Accordingly you must assess the risks (as measured by probability) and make your decisions in a world of uncertainty.
Statistics: It Will Fail It Will Succeed