Population Trends in China

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POPULATION TRENDS IN CHINA SL TYPE II
Aim: In this task, you will investigate different functions that best model the population of China from 1950 to 1995.
The following table
1
shows the population of China from 1950 to 1995.
Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Population
in Millions
554.8 609.0 657.5 729.2 830.7 927.8 998.9 1070.0 1155.3 1220.5 Define all relevant variables and parameters clearly. Use technology to plot the data points from the above table on a graph.
Comment on any apparent trends shown in the graph. What types of functions could model the behaviour of the graph? Explain your choices.
Analytically develop one model function that fits the data points on your graph. On a new set of axes, plot your model and the original data. Comment on how well your model fits the original data. Revise your model if necessary.

A researcher suggests that the population, P at time t can be modelled by ( )
1 e
Mt
K
P t
L



, where K, L and M are parameters.
Use technology to estimate and interpret K, L and M. Construct the researcher’s model using your estimates.
On a new set of axes, plot the researcher’s model and the original data. Comment on how well this model fits the original data.
Discuss the implications of each of these models in terms of population growth for China in the future.
Here are additional data on population trends in China from the 2008 World Economic Outlook, published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Year 1983 1992 1997 2000 2003 2005 2008
Population
in Millions
1030.1 1171.7 1236.3 1267.4 1292.3 1307.6 1327.7
Comment on how well each of the models above fit the IMF data for the years 1983–2008. Modify the model that best fits the IMF data, so that it applies to all the given data from 1950 to 2008. Comment on how well your modified model fits all the data. 1

Data from the “land use change and agriculture program”, published by the International Institute for...
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