Submitted to: Sir Ijaz Ahmad
Submitted by: Syeda Ezma Jawed
Research Methods and Technology
(Fallahi, Pourtaghi, & Rodriguez, 2012), studied the effect of unemployment rate and its volatility on Crime. The Researchers investigated that not only the unemployment rate but its volatility also affect the crime rate. Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models are used to characterize and model observed time series. They are used whenever there is reason to believe that, at any point in a series, the terms will have a characteristic size, or variance. In particular ARCH models assume the variance of the current error term or innovation to be a function of the actual sizes of the previous time periods' error terms: often the variance is related to the squares of the previous innovations. Quarterly data on four types of crime and unemployment rate are used to investigate how the unemployment rate and its volatility might affect the crime.
The researcher, after gathering the data and examining the volatility of unemployment rate reached to the conclusion that the unemployment rate and its volatility have a significant impact on the crime rate. The unemployment rate affects the crime rate in short run whereas its volatility affects the crime rate beyond the limits and the time
The crimes fluctuation observed in the research paper were Motor-vehicle theft and Burglary. The statistics used for the study are taken from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports across the US from 1970 to 1993. They are then broken down according to types of crime and adjusted for poverty and demographic components. The author investigated the keywords like Unemployment Volatility, Crimes and Unemployment. The dependent variable is defined as the Crime Rate (CRIME). The independent variable is UNEMP (Unemployment Rate). When the lack of available opportunity exists to provide income and the means to provide for one self and/or a family, it puts a negative pressure on an individual to resort to basic survival. It has been theorized that unemployment tends to propel persons into crime to enable them to survive economically, and also that unemployment tends to increase the anomie among the unemployed that is related to criminal behavior. The results from the estimated models for burglary and auto theft show that in the long run unemployment rate has no significant effect on burglary and auto theft. span However, the unemployment rate has a negative effect on burglary and a positive effect on auto theft in the short run. In addition, we find that the unemployment volatility has a negative effect on auto theft regardless of time-span, i.e. short run or long run, which is in agreement with the findings of Cook and Zarkin (1985). As for the burglary, the results show that in the short run the unemployment volatility has a positive effect on burglary. In the long run, however, there is no relationship between burglary and the unemployment volatility.
The article chosen for the critical analysis is generally because it has close association with the research question. The motive was to investigate that how the certain factors like unemployment volatility and unemployment rate influences crimes like Burglary and motor theft. The unemployment rate and poverty are considered to play a vital role in influencing the crimes in a particular economy. One is the interaction between crime and joblessness, for the former can also cause the latter. This is a result of what the authors call the ‘scarring effects effect of incarceration or a greater reluctance among the criminally initiated to accept legitimate employment. When the authors properly take care of these statistical problems, they find a positive impact of unemployment on property crime as well as violent crime. The studies reviewed were either solely concerned with establishing the impact of unemployment on crime...
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