Projections of Cancer Cases in India (2010-2030) by Cancer Groups
RESEARCH COMMUNICATION Projections of Number of Cancer Cases in India (2010-2020) by Cancer Groups Ramnath Takiar*, Deenu Nadayil, A Nandakumar
Introduction: Recently, NCRP (ICMR), Bangalore, has published a report on Time Trends in Cancer Incidence Rates. The report also provided projected numbers of cancer cases at the India country level for selected leadingsites. Objective: In the present paper, an attempt has been made to project cancer cases for India by sex, years and cancer groups. Sources of data: The incidence data generated by population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) at Bangalore, Barshi, Bhopal, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai for the years 2001-2005 formed the sources of data. In addition, the latest incidence data of North Eastern Registries for the year 2005-06 were utilized. Methods: The crude incidence rate (CR) was considered suitable for assessing the future load of cancer cases in the country. The Linear Regression method (IARC 1991) was used to assess the time trend and the projection of rates for the periods 2010-2020. For whichever sites where trends were not found to be significant, their latest rates were taken into consideration and assumed to remain same for the period 2010-2020. Results: The total cancer cases are likely to go up from 979,786 cases in the year 2010 to 1,148,757 cases in the year 2020. The tobacco-related cancers for males are estimated to go up from 190,244 in the year 2010 to 225,241 in the year 2020. Similarly, the female cases will go up from 75,289 in year 2010 to 93,563 in the year 2020. For the year 2010, the number of cancer cases related to digestive system, for both males and females, are estimated to be 107,030 and 86,606 respectively. For, head and neck cancers, the estimates are 122,643 and 53,148 cases, respectively. and for the lymphoid and hematopoietic system (LHS), for the year 2010, are 62,648 for males and 41,591 for females. Gynecological-related cancers are estimated to go up from 153,850 in 2010 to 182,602 in 2020. Among males and females, cancer of breast alone is expected to cross the figure of 100,000 by the year 2020. Keywords: Organ system-based cancer groups - tobacco related cancers - projections - India Asian Pacific J Cancer Prev, 11, 1045-1049
The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) started a National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP) in the year 1982 with the main objective of generating reliable data on the magnitude and pattern of cancer in India. There are 24 population-based cancer registries (PBCR) which are currently functioning under the network of NCRP. Of these, six PBCR’s have been functioning since the year 1982/88. Recently, NCRP has published a report on Time Trends in Cancer Incidence Rates (NCRP 2009). This report depicts the changes in incidence rates of cancer from five urban registries and one rural registry of India. In the last chapter of the report, an attempt was made to project the number of cancer cases at India level for selected leadings sites. However, in the present paper, a siumilar attempt has been made to project cancer cases for India by sex, years and cancer groups.
Materials and Methods
The incidence data generated by PBCRs at Bangalore,
Barshi, Bhopal, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai for the years 2001-2005 formed the sources of data. In addition, the latest incidence data of North Eastern Registries for the year 2005-06 was utilized (NCRP, 2008). The crude incidence rate (CR) was considered suitable for assessing the future load of cancer cases in the country. The CR is preferable to the age-adjusted rate (AAR) as the latter is more suitable for comparison of rates between areas than for assessing the disease burden for the area. The linear regression method (IARC, 1991) was used to assess the time trend and the projection of rates for the periods 20102020. For whichever sites, the trends were not found to be...
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