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Investment Appraisal Under Uncertainty

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Investment Appraisal Under Uncertainty
Investment Appraisal under Uncertainty

Question a Internal Memo
Date: November 15, 2012

Subject: Investment report

To: Mr. Michael the Chief Engineer Mr. Richard the accountant Mrs. Rachel the economist
From: Alex the Managing Director

Hello, everyone, I would like to present an introduction and brief description of the investment project to you, and wish to make sense as much as possible. To begin with, this project is about creating an online-based business that specializes on consumer goods such as fashion garments, imported electronic products and food, nutrient products and many others like that. Generally speaking, all kinds of products have to be easily stored, delivered and legally accepted by both Hong Kong and China mainland government. Probably, some of you may wonder why we need to enter an online market for consumers, since there are too many players already and the profitability rate might be squeezed out by those first movers. Apart from, you may think that we have US$ 5,000,000,which could either create a unique business or enable to enter some business areas with large amount of initial capital requirement but higher profitability guarantee.

In response, I would like to explain the reasons why this investment project could be a good business opportunity for us, and the predicted net cash flows would be substantially and sustainability. In the first place, it is necessary to emphasize that we aim to construct a solid electronic business platform that base in Hong Kong but primarily focuses on China mainland market. More importantly, we might need to invest a substantial number of money on supply chain management, marketing, channel constructions and our own logistic networks. There are so many reasons to support why we have to focus on China mainland consumer goods market, not only the second largest economy in the world or the two digits or highly one digit



References: Amram, Martha, Nalin Kulatilaka. 1999. Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World. Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA. Altshuler, D. & Magni, C.A., 2012. Why IRR is Not the Rate of Return for Your Investment: Introducing AIRR to the Real Estate Community. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management. 18(2). BBC News, 2012, retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19975112. Bowman, E.H. & Moskowitz, G.T., 2011. Real Options Analysis and Strategic Decesion Making. Organization Science. 12(6). Berkovitch, E. & Israel, R., 2004. Why the NPV Criterion Does Not Maximize NPV. The Review of Financial Studies, 17(1). INVESTOPEDIA, 2012, retrieved from http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/irr.asp#axzz2E0hpZmDx INVESTOPEDIA, 2012, retrieved from http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/realoption.asp#axzz2E0hpZmDx Lefley, F., 1996. The Payback Method of Investment Appraisal: A Review and Synthesis. International Journal of Production Economics. No. 44. Li, Y. & Tong, T.W., 2011. Real Options and Investment Mode : Evidence from Corporate Venture Capital and Acquisition. Organization Science. 22(3). The Economists, 2012, retrieved from http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/01/world-economy. Thomas, O. 1995. Expected Internal Rate of Return. Actuarial Research Clearing House, No.2. Hsieh, Chang-Tai., Bai, Chong-En. & Qian, Yingyi., 2006. The Return to Capital In China. National Bureau of Economic Research. National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook, 2011 Narayana, M.P., 1985

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