Future of Pakisatn
FOREIGN POLICY at Brookings
The Future of Pakistan
Stephen P. Cohen
South Asia Initiative
THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN
Stephen P. Cohen
The Brookings Institution Washington, D.C. January 2011
1
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Stephen P. Cohen is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at Brookings. He came to Brookings in 1998 after a long career as professor of political science and history at the University of Illinois. Dr. Cohen previously served as scholar-in-residence at the Ford Foundation in New Delhi and as a member of the Policy Planning Staff of the U.S. State Department. He has also taught at universities in India, Japan and Singapore. He is currently a member of the National Academy of Science’s Committee on International Security and Arms Control. Dr. Cohen is the author or editor of more than eleven books, focusing primarily on South Asian security issues. His most recent book, Arming without Aiming: India modernizes its Military (coauthored with Sunil Das Gupta, 2010), focuses on India’s military expansion. Dr. Cohen received Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees at the University of Chicago, and a PhD from the University of Wisconsin.
EDITOR’S NOTE
This essay and accompanying papers are also available at http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2010/09_bellagio_conference_papers.aspx
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE………………………………………………………………………….. 1 INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………….3 PAKISTAN TO 2011………………………………………………………………. 5 FOUR CLUSTERS I: Demography, Education, Class, and Economics………………………….. 16 II: Pakistan’s Identity……………………………………………………….. 23 III: State Coherence………………………………………………………… 27 IV: External and Global Factors…………………………………………...... 34 SCENARIOS AND OUTCOMES…………………………………………………. 43 CONCLUSIONS…………………………………………………………………… 50 SIX WARNING SIGNS……………………………………………………………. 51 POLICY: BETWEEN HOPE AND DESPAIR……………………………………. 52 APPENDIX……………………………………………………………………….... 56
3
ABBREVIATIONS
CBMs CSIS FATA GDP IMF ISI JeI JUI-F KP LeT MQM NATO
The Future of Pakistan
Stephen P. Cohen
South Asia Initiative
THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN
Stephen P. Cohen
The Brookings Institution Washington, D.C. January 2011
1
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Stephen P. Cohen is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at Brookings. He came to Brookings in 1998 after a long career as professor of political science and history at the University of Illinois. Dr. Cohen previously served as scholar-in-residence at the Ford Foundation in New Delhi and as a member of the Policy Planning Staff of the U.S. State Department. He has also taught at universities in India, Japan and Singapore. He is currently a member of the National Academy of Science’s Committee on International Security and Arms Control. Dr. Cohen is the author or editor of more than eleven books, focusing primarily on South Asian security issues. His most recent book, Arming without Aiming: India modernizes its Military (coauthored with Sunil Das Gupta, 2010), focuses on India’s military expansion. Dr. Cohen received Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees at the University of Chicago, and a PhD from the University of Wisconsin.
EDITOR’S NOTE
This essay and accompanying papers are also available at http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2010/09_bellagio_conference_papers.aspx
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE………………………………………………………………………….. 1 INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………….3 PAKISTAN TO 2011………………………………………………………………. 5 FOUR CLUSTERS I: Demography, Education, Class, and Economics………………………….. 16 II: Pakistan’s Identity……………………………………………………….. 23 III: State Coherence………………………………………………………… 27 IV: External and Global Factors…………………………………………...... 34 SCENARIOS AND OUTCOMES…………………………………………………. 43 CONCLUSIONS…………………………………………………………………… 50 SIX WARNING SIGNS……………………………………………………………. 51 POLICY: BETWEEN HOPE AND DESPAIR……………………………………. 52 APPENDIX……………………………………………………………………….... 56
3
ABBREVIATIONS
CBMs CSIS FATA GDP IMF ISI JeI JUI-F KP LeT MQM NATO