Future of Pakisatn

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FOREIGN POLICY at Brookings

    The Future of Pakistan
Stephen P. Cohen
South Asia Initiative

     
THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN
Stephen P. Cohen

The Brookings Institution Washington, D.C. January 2011

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Stephen P. Cohen is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at Brookings. He came to Brookings in 1998 after a long career as professor of political science and history at the University of Illinois. Dr. Cohen previously served as scholar-in-residence at the Ford Foundation in New Delhi and as a member of the Policy Planning Staff of the U.S. State Department. He has also taught at universities in India, Japan and Singapore. He is currently a member of the National Academy of Science’s Committee on International Security and Arms Control. Dr. Cohen is the author or editor of more than eleven books, focusing primarily on South Asian security issues. His most recent book, Arming without Aiming: India modernizes its Military (coauthored with Sunil Das Gupta, 2010), focuses on India’s military expansion. Dr. Cohen received Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees at the University of Chicago, and a PhD from the University of Wisconsin.

EDITOR’S NOTE
This essay and accompanying papers are also available at http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2010/09_bellagio_conference_papers.aspx

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE………………………………………………………………………….. 1 INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………….3 PAKISTAN TO 2011………………………………………………………………. 5 FOUR CLUSTERS I: Demography, Education, Class, and Economics………………………….. 16 II: Pakistan’s Identity……………………………………………………….. 23 III: State Coherence………………………………………………………… 27 IV: External and Global Factors…………………………………………...... 34 SCENARIOS AND OUTCOMES…………………………………………………. 43 CONCLUSIONS…………………………………………………………………… 50 SIX WARNING SIGNS……………………………………………………………. 51 POLICY: BETWEEN HOPE AND DESPAIR……………………………………. 52 APPENDIX……………………………………………………………………….... 56

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ABBREVIATIONS
CBMs CSIS FATA GDP IMF ISI JeI JUI-F KP LeT MQM NATO NFC NGOs NIC NSC NWFP PML PPP U.N. UNDP Confidence-building measures Center for Strategic and International Studies Federally Administered Tribal Areas Gross Domestic Product International Monetary Fund Inter-Services Intelligence Jamaat-e-Islami Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rehman) Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Lashkar-e-Taiba Muttahida Pauma Movement North Atlantic Treaty Organization National Finance Commission Non-governmental organizations National Intelligence Council National Security Council North-West Frontier Province Pakistan Muslim League (various factions) Pakistan People’s Party United Nations United Nations Development Programme 4

USIP

United States Institute of Peace

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PREFACE
This is the capstone essay of a larger project that looks at Pakistan’s medium-term future, defined as the next five to seven years (2012-2017). Other project elements include a summary of past predictions of Pakistan’s future (Appendix) and fourteen essays commissioned for a workshop at the Rockefeller Conference Center in Bellagio, Italy in May 2010. The authors were asked to briefly set forth important variables or factors that might shape Pakistan’s future and to speculate on the likely outcomes. 1 This essay follows the same pattern. After a brief summary of recent developments, it examines a number of factors – distributed among four categories – and then sets forth a number of alternative futures. It also explores the methodological problems inherent in this exercise and discusses policy options, especially for the United States, other Western countries, Japan, and India. Brookings is grateful for project support from the Rockefeller Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and the Norwegian Peacebuilding Foundation (NOREF). Parts of the final section of this essay appeared first as a NOREF policy brief. I am especially grateful to Azeema Cheema and Erum Haider for their assistance in this project; as young Pakistanis and...
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