Disease trends and the delivery of health care services
Paul D. Wheeler
April 27, 2013
The wave of baby boomers will reshape the health care system forever. There will be more people enjoying their later years, but they’ll be managing ore chronic conditions and therefore utilizing more health care services ("Chd/center For Design Health", 2013). There will be more people enjoying their later years, but they will also be managing more chronic conditions and therefore utilizing more health care services. By 2030 the over 65 population will nearly triple, 6 out of 10 will be managing more than one chronic condition and one out of three, over 21 million, will be considered obese, with one out of four, nearly 14 million, living with diabetes, 1 out of every 2 will be living with arthritis, and eight times more knee replacements than performed today. At the turn of the century US life expectancy was 47 years of age. In 2002 (the last year for which data are available) it was 77 years. Why has that life expectancy nearly doubled? People are living longer because of lifestyle changes, advances in health care, fewer people smoke, heart and cancer survival rate has increased by 16%. Chronic conditions like Diabetes, hypertension, arthritis, obesity, alcoholism are the biggest factors influencing medical spending. In 2000 people over the age of 65 suffering from chronic conditions was 5.500,00 in is estimated that in 2030 this number will increase to 36.000,000. Those over 65 years old are more education and have financial assets to help them in their retirement years; however, they still worry about their ability to pay for health care during their retirement. Retirees change US demographic geography with their retirement choices. Most retirees prefer to move to Florida (14%) Arizona (12%) North Carolina (10%) California (8%) Texas (5%). Due to joint replacement and pain medication those over 65 lead more active lives than their parents, and these innovations have translated into a decreasing percentage of Americans who are considered chronically disabled. Although diabetes has increased in the elderly, improvement in monitoring tools and treatments available to control glucose levels has also increased survival rate from this illness.
By 2030, the number of U.S. adults aged 65 or older will more than double to about 71 million. The rapidly increasing number of older Americans has far-reaching implications for our nation's public health system and will place unprecedented demands on the provision of health care and aging-related services ("Cdc - Chronic Disease - Healthy Aging at a Glance", 2013). With people living longer it is likely to use more health care resources per person than in past generations because they are able to manage more complex conditions. On average the cost of health care for an individual with more than five chronic conditions is nearly 15 times that of an individual with no chronic conditions. It is estimated that a person with no chronic condition is likely to spend about $850 per year on health issues, yet a person with 5 plus chronic conditions is likely to spend in excess of $13,000 per year. In 2010 the number of hospital admission was quoted at 8.9 million, it is estimated that in 2030 that number will increase to 22.9 million. In 2004 hospital admissions under the age of 65 was estimated at 62%, over the age of 65 was 38%, however, in 2030 it is estimated that people under the age of 65 will be 44% but over the age of 65 will be 56%. Due to this increase we are experiencing a shortage of qualified nurses and physicians. Healthcare delivery in the future will be different. Patients want more control, and with technologies emerging it will make it easier to deliver care remotely and to more actively engage patients. Hospitals are leveraging these technologies and broadening programs...
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