Falling Into The Trap Of Conjunction Fallacy
Perception is the major reason behind people falling into the trap of conjunction fallacy. People caught in conjunction fallacy find it easier to conceive two events occurring together than them happening separately. To be more precise a conjunction fallacy occurs when two events which can occur together or alone are seen more likely to happen in combination than isolation. This usually happens when it is easier to imagine two events occurring in a combination than occurring alone. It is a formal fallacy that occurs when it is supposed that certain given specific conditions based on our perception are more likely to happen than a single general one.
The realization of fallacies in cases is often difficult because arguments are often structured …show more content…
She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.”
Then they were asked that which condition was more probable?
1. Linda is a bank teller.
2. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
The majority of the audience settled for the option no. two. However, speaking in the terms of probability, the probability of two events occurring together (in "conjunction") is always less than or equal to the probability of any one of them happening independently.
For example, if we choose a very low value for probability of Linda being a bank teller, say Pr(Linda is a bank teller) = 0.03 and a high probability of her being a feminist, say Pr(Linda is a feminist) = 0.97, then, assuming independence, Pr(Linda being bank teller and Linda being a feminist) = 0.03 × 0.97 or 0.0291, which is lower than the probability of her being only a bank teller. Which violates the laws of probability, Tversky and Kahneman explains that this happens mainly because subjects tend to add an unstated implication to the effect that the other answer implied that Linda’s not being a …show more content…
Although there are criticism of this theory by Gerd Gigerenzer and Ralph Hertwig saying that the Linda problem is wording and framing. And even if several methods have been developed to minimize the possible misinterpretation but none of them has dissipated the effect. And the theory has stood the test of times.
Stephen J. Gould has praised the example of Linda problem by saying that he is particularly fond of this because he knows that the [conjoint] statement is least probable, yet a little homunculus in my head continues to jump up and down, shouting at me—“but she can’t just be a bank teller; read the
The realization of fallacies in cases is often difficult because arguments are often structured …show more content…
She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.”
Then they were asked that which condition was more probable?
1. Linda is a bank teller.
2. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
The majority of the audience settled for the option no. two. However, speaking in the terms of probability, the probability of two events occurring together (in "conjunction") is always less than or equal to the probability of any one of them happening independently.
For example, if we choose a very low value for probability of Linda being a bank teller, say Pr(Linda is a bank teller) = 0.03 and a high probability of her being a feminist, say Pr(Linda is a feminist) = 0.97, then, assuming independence, Pr(Linda being bank teller and Linda being a feminist) = 0.03 × 0.97 or 0.0291, which is lower than the probability of her being only a bank teller. Which violates the laws of probability, Tversky and Kahneman explains that this happens mainly because subjects tend to add an unstated implication to the effect that the other answer implied that Linda’s not being a …show more content…
Although there are criticism of this theory by Gerd Gigerenzer and Ralph Hertwig saying that the Linda problem is wording and framing. And even if several methods have been developed to minimize the possible misinterpretation but none of them has dissipated the effect. And the theory has stood the test of times.
Stephen J. Gould has praised the example of Linda problem by saying that he is particularly fond of this because he knows that the [conjoint] statement is least probable, yet a little homunculus in my head continues to jump up and down, shouting at me—“but she can’t just be a bank teller; read the