Kiandria Grissett
Business Math-7
4 / 20 / 2013
Estimation
1. Discuss at least two "real world" examples in which you use estimation in your daily life. 2. Discuss from your examples how estimating can have negative effects if you over or under estimated. 3. Think of an example in a real world scenario when a company or organization might use estimation and have negative or devastating results. One real world example I would like to discuss is how many minutes it takes me to get up and be at the marina at 11am. I work on Baldhead Island which means I have to catch a ferry to get to work. Each ferry leaves every half hour and not a minute late and I have to be there before 11am. I usually estimate my time right on point I wake up at 9:30 am it usually takes me 20 to 30 minutes or less to take a shower, get dressed, brush my teeth, and do my hair. I leave my house no later than 10:15 am which puts me at the marina at 10:45 am waiting on the boat. Another example that I would like to discuss is getting my boyfriend back and forth to court when he has it being that he is from another county in the state of North Carolina and it takes us at least an hour and forty-five minutes to get there. When he does have court it usually takes in at 8am. We usually wake up at 6:20am (I know we are pushing it on the time) get dresses, feed the dogs and are out getting gas no later than 6:40am. We make this long drive down the interstate driving 80 to 85 miles an hour just to make it to court by roll call but for some odd reason we always make it on time. That’s what I call good estimation. Some negative effects when over and under estimating are sometimes had to tell because you never know what may be going on, on the highway. Let’s dig into over estimating I think can be a good thing which means you are where you need to be early enough so that you are not rushing. It can also be a bad thing because if I leave my house too early and the ferry is running late this...

...G Different Methods for Cost Estimation
Expert Judgment Method
Expert judgment techniques involve consulting with software cost estimation expert or a group of the experts to use their experience and understanding of the proposed project to arrive at an estimate of its cost.
Generally speaking, a group consensus technique, Delphi technique, is the best way to be used. The strengths and weaknesses are complementary to the strengths and weaknesses of algorithmic method.
To provide a sufficiently broad communication bandwidth for the experts to exchange the volume of information necessary to calibrate their estimates with those of the other experts, a wideband Delphi technique is introduced over standard Deliphi technique.
Steps using this estimating method:
1. Coordinator presents each expert with a specification and an estimation form.
2. Coordinator calls a group meeting in which the experts discuss estimation issues with the coordinator and each other.
3. Experts fill out forms anonymously
4. Coordinator prepares and distributes a summary of the estimation on an iteration form.
5. Coordinator calls a group meeting, specially focusing on having the experts discuss points where their estimates varied widely.
6. Experts fill out forms, again anonymously, and steps 4 and 6 are iterated for as many rounds as appropriate.
The wideband Delphi Technique had been used in a number...

...Project Scope and Estimation of Time and Cost
PROJECT KICK-OFF MEETING
-The Kickoff Meeting is the first meeting with the project team and the client of the project. This meeting would follow definition of the base elements for the project and other project planning activities. This meeting introduces the members of the project team and the client and provides the opportunity to discuss the role of each team member. Other base elements in the project that involve the client may also be discussed at this meeting (schedule, status reporting, etc.).
Potential Topics for a Kick-off Meeting
Below is a list of potential topics to be addressed during a kick-off meeting. Depending on the nature of the project, some topics may or may not apply. The Project Manager will use discretion in the selection of the topics he/she considers pertinent based on the kick-off meeting objectives.
Project Scope/Deliverables and Schedule - During the kick-off meeting, the Project Manager addresses the highlights on the scope of the work and the importance of the project.
Project Site(s) - When appropriate, the Project Manager should use a map or drawing to identify the site(s) or location(s) associated with the project, with the intention of providing the geographical context in which the project takes place.
Project Organization - During the session, the Project Manager can review the project organizational chart and the associated roles and responsibilities to accomplish the...

...MANGERIAL ECONOMICS
Assignment
Demand Estimation
04-Dec-12
Liaqat Group
Submitted To:
Prof. Babar Hussain
What Is Demand Estimation?
When running a small business, it is important to have an idea of what you should expect in the way of sales. To estimate how many sales a company will make, demand estimation is a process that is commonly used. With demand estimation, a company can gauge how much to produce and make other important decisions.
Definition:
Demand estimation is a process that involves coming up with an estimate of the amount of demand for a product or service. The estimate of demand is typically confined to a particular period of time, such as a month, quarter or year. While this is definitely not a way to predict the future for your business, it can be used to come up with fairly accurate estimates if the assumptions made are correct.
Methods of Demand Estimation:
There are a variety of ways that can be used to estimate demand, each of which has certain advantages and disadvantages. They are divided into Qualitative and Quantitative Methods.
Qualitative Methods:
Qualitative methods consists of following points.
Consumer surveys:
Firms can obtain information regarding their demand functions by using interviews and questionnaires, asking questions about buying habits, motives and intentions. These can be...

...Delta’s New Song:
A Case on Cost Estimation
In the Airline Industry
Contents
Question 1 2
Question 2 3
Question 3 4
Question 4 7
Question 5 8
Question 1 8
Question 2 9
Question 3 11
Question 4 13
Appendix 1 13
Appendix 2 19
Question 1
There are several possible factors that seem more relevant to be as a cost diver to estimate Delta’s salaries:
* Available Ton Miles
* Number of Departures(thousand)
* Revenue Passenger Miles
* Revenue Ton Miles
* Revenue Miles scheduled
Salary cost for Delta consists of the payment to flight attendants and pilots so it can be determined by the hours flown. The miles and the time flown are correlated so between these cost drivers, available ton miles seems to be the most reasonable cost driver since it indicate the time that the pilots and the flight attendant work for the Delta.
Question 2
We first apply simple regression using each of the cost drivers mention above and other factor to estimate the salary by the cost drivers individually to see which one is best cost driver based on statistical reason and comparing R square.
The scatter plots are shown in appendix 1.
Results are as follows:
X | Y | Y=AX+B | R square |
Available Seat Miles | Salary Cost | Y=38.099X+262.71 | 0.0997 |
Available Ton Miles | Salary Cost | Y=0.5517X-682.64 | 0.5577 |
Number of Departures | Salary Cost | Y=-8.5728X+3184.7 | 0.3229 |
Revenue Air Hours | Salary Cost |...

...antenna that uses selectable radiation patterns depending on the situations. These antennas provide the ability to sense the direction of incoming signals. Smart antennas are the antenna arrays with smart signal processing algorithms used to identify spatial signal signature such as the Direction of arrival (DOA) and used to calculate the beam forming vectors, to tract and locate the antenna beam on the mobile/target. Smart has the main function of DOA estimation.
Keywords: Smart antenna, DOA ,Wireless communication.
1. Introduction: The smart antenna system estimates the direction of arrival of the signal, using techniques such as MUSIC (Multiple Signal Classification), estimation of signal parameters via rotational invariance techniques (ESPRIT) algorithms. They Involve finding a spatial spectrum of the antenna/sensor array, and calculating the
DOA from the peaks of this spectrum. These calculations are computationally intensive.
2.Direction Of arrival Estimation Algorithms
The array-based direction-of-algorithm estimation techniques can be broadly divided into four different types conventional techniques, subspace based techniques, maximum likelihood techniques and the integrated techniques which combine property restoral techniques with subspace based techniques. Conventional methods are based on classical beam forming techniques and require a large number of elements to achieve high resolution. Subspace...

...ROBUST HARMONIC ESTIMATION USING
FORGETTING FACTOR RLS
H.K.SAHOO
POOJA SHARMA
Dept. of Electronics and Telecommunication
IIIT, Bhubaneswar
India
Email: harish@iiit-bh.ac.in
Dept. of Electronics and Telecommunication
BIT, Mesra, India
Email: haipoo29@gmail.com
N.P.RATH
Dept. of Electronics and Telecommunication
VSSUT, Burla, India
Email: n_p_rath@hotmail.com
Abstract— The prime reasons for power quality
degradation include voltage sag, swell and momentary
interruptions and also the presence of harmonics. Thus
accurate computation of harmonics is really a challenging
problem in power system. Many algorithms have been
proposed for harmonic estimation to improve the power
quality. In this paper the Forgetting Factor RLS (FFRLS)
approach has been considered to estimate not only voltage
sag,swell,momentary interruption but also the amplitudes and
phases of harmonics in case of time varying power signals in
presence of White Gaussian Noise. Also comparison results
with LMS and NLMS algorithms are presented to show the
effectiveness of the proposed RLS algorithm.
Keywords- RLS, LMS, NLMS, Harmonic Estimation, White
Gaussian Noise
I.
INTRODUCTION
The wide spread applications of electronically controlled loads
have increased the harmonic distortion in power system
voltage and current waveforms. As power semiconductors are
switched on and off at different points on the voltage
waveform, damped...

...estimated
from sample evidence
Sample
Population
Sample Statistics as Estimators of
Population Parameters
A sample statistic is a
numerical measure of a
summary characteristic of a
sample.
•
•
•
A population parameter is
a numerical measure of a
summary characteristic of a
population.
An estimator of a population parameter is a sample statistic
used to estimate or predict the population parameter.
An estimate of a parameter is a particular numerical value of
a sample statistic obtained through sampling.
A point estimate is a single value used as an estimate of a
population parameter.
Inferential Statistics
Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions
concerning a population based on sample results.
• Estimation
Estimate the population mean using the
information derived from sample
• Hypothesis Testing
Use sample evidence to test hypotheses about
the population mean
Point and Interval Estimates
• A point estimate is a single number,
• A confidence interval contains a certain
percentage of possible values of the parameter
Lower
Confidence
Limit
Point Estimate
Width of
confidence interval
Upper
Confidence
Limit
Point Estimates
Estimate Population
Parameters …
with Sample
Statistics
Mean
µ
X
Proportion
p
PS
Variance
Difference
σ
2
µ1 − µ 2
S
2
X1 − X 2
Point Estimate
Table 1.1 : Annual salary and training programme status
Sl
No...

...biased, and their ﬁnite-sample properties are often problematic. Thus, most of the justiﬁcation for the use of IV is asymptotic. Performance in small samples may be poor. The precision of IV estimates is lower than that of OLS estimates (least squares is just that). In the presence of weak instruments (excluded instruments only weakly correlated with included endogenous regressors) the loss of precision will be severe, and IV estimates may be no improvement over OLS. This suggests we need a method to determine whether a particular regressor must be treated as endogenous.
Christopher F Baum (Boston College) IVs and Panel Data Feb 2009 9 / 43
The IV-GMM estimator
IV estimation as a GMM problem
Before discussing further the motivation for various weak instrument diagnostics, we deﬁne the setting for IV estimation as a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) optimization problem. Economists consider GMM to be the invention of Lars Hansen in his 1982 Econometrica paper, but as Alistair Hall points out in his 2005 book, the method has its antecedents in Karl Pearson’s Method of Moments [MM] (1895) and Neyman and Egon Pearson’s minimum Chi-squared estimator [MCE] (1928). Their MCE approach overcomes the difﬁculty with MM estimators when there are more moment conditions than parameters to be estimated. This was recognized by Ferguson (Ann. Math. Stat. 1958) for the case of i.i.d. errors, but his work had no impact on the econometric literature....