Due 9/27 By Digital Dropbox
MGMT 426 Due 9/27 by Digital Dropbox
Homework #1 – Forecasting No assignments will be accepted after 9/29
You are encouraged to work in pairs. While you may still work individually; the same amount of work is required to complete the assignment. If you work in pairs, both parties MUST be present while working on the assignment. If one person (A) understands the material better than the other person (B), it is A’s responsibility to explain the material to B and it is B’s responsibility to ask questions of A needed to fully understand the material.
For problems 1 through 3, assume you work for a company that delivers food supplies to restaurants and cafeterias. You need to forecast monthly deliveries in order to determine the …show more content…
Excel, create a worksheet named Problem 1 (see Appendix A for a sample layout).
a) Briefly describe in a textbox each of the above data series (e.g. do you see a trend?)
Using times series 1 data, prepare:
b) a forecast for February through November using the naïve method
c) a forecast for March through November using a 2 month moving average
d) a forecast for May through November using a 4 month moving average
e) a forecast for May through November using a 4 month moving average weighted average with weights .5 (most recent) .3, .1 and .1 (most distant).
Then:
f) Create a line chart for months May through October shown on the horizontal axis. There should be 5 data series (e.g. lines) – one for each forecast method and one for the actual. If you need help with MS Excel line charts here’s a good demo .
g) Compute the mean absolute deviation for each method using months May through October.
h) For time series 1, which method should be used to forecast November based on the MAD criterion?
i) Explain why this method (part h) is most accurate for time series …show more content…
a) Use Excel functions (INTERCEPT, SLOPE and RSQ) to estimate the intercept, slope and coefficient of correlation (R2).
b) Write the regression equation in a textbox. Use problem specific variable names (e.g. drying time instead of Y).
c) Interpret the slope and R2 (in a textbox)
d) Using the regression results, predict the drying time if the temperature is 85. Refer to the cells which contain the estimated intercept and slope parameters.
Submission
Congratulations, you are now an adept forecaster and a power MS Excel user. Now you just need to upload the file and send it via Blackboard. Make sure that your last name(s) are in the filename. Do NOT use special characters in your filenames (e.g.#%$). Blackboard will choke on them and I will not get your file. Done!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Appendix A -Sample Spreadsheet Layout (Left-Side) for Problem 1 Appendix A -Sample Spreadsheet Layout (Left-Side) for Problem 1
Note -- You are not required to use this format.
Appendix B -Sample Spreadsheet Layout for Problem
Homework #1 – Forecasting No assignments will be accepted after 9/29
You are encouraged to work in pairs. While you may still work individually; the same amount of work is required to complete the assignment. If you work in pairs, both parties MUST be present while working on the assignment. If one person (A) understands the material better than the other person (B), it is A’s responsibility to explain the material to B and it is B’s responsibility to ask questions of A needed to fully understand the material.
For problems 1 through 3, assume you work for a company that delivers food supplies to restaurants and cafeterias. You need to forecast monthly deliveries in order to determine the …show more content…
Excel, create a worksheet named Problem 1 (see Appendix A for a sample layout).
a) Briefly describe in a textbox each of the above data series (e.g. do you see a trend?)
Using times series 1 data, prepare:
b) a forecast for February through November using the naïve method
c) a forecast for March through November using a 2 month moving average
d) a forecast for May through November using a 4 month moving average
e) a forecast for May through November using a 4 month moving average weighted average with weights .5 (most recent) .3, .1 and .1 (most distant).
Then:
f) Create a line chart for months May through October shown on the horizontal axis. There should be 5 data series (e.g. lines) – one for each forecast method and one for the actual. If you need help with MS Excel line charts here’s a good demo .
g) Compute the mean absolute deviation for each method using months May through October.
h) For time series 1, which method should be used to forecast November based on the MAD criterion?
i) Explain why this method (part h) is most accurate for time series …show more content…
a) Use Excel functions (INTERCEPT, SLOPE and RSQ) to estimate the intercept, slope and coefficient of correlation (R2).
b) Write the regression equation in a textbox. Use problem specific variable names (e.g. drying time instead of Y).
c) Interpret the slope and R2 (in a textbox)
d) Using the regression results, predict the drying time if the temperature is 85. Refer to the cells which contain the estimated intercept and slope parameters.
Submission
Congratulations, you are now an adept forecaster and a power MS Excel user. Now you just need to upload the file and send it via Blackboard. Make sure that your last name(s) are in the filename. Do NOT use special characters in your filenames (e.g.#%$). Blackboard will choke on them and I will not get your file. Done!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Appendix A -Sample Spreadsheet Layout (Left-Side) for Problem 1 Appendix A -Sample Spreadsheet Layout (Left-Side) for Problem 1
Note -- You are not required to use this format.
Appendix B -Sample Spreadsheet Layout for Problem