Sales totals consistently follow a trend, featuring peak sales in January and low sales in September. (see workbook titled Data & Time Series Plot #1) There appears to be a steady decline in food and beverage sales at the start of the calendar year, followed by recovery in sales entering the fourth quarter of the year. The first quarter consistently produces higher sales. The highest month of sales is January, and the lowest is September. This makes intuitive sense because tourism would be high in Florida during the colder months and low in September when school typically starts. Although the sales figures vary in actual value, the underlying trend remains consistent during the years reviewed. Seasonal indexes make sense as 3 consecutive years clearly indicate horizontal and seasonal trends. Consequently, the sales trends can be used to forecast future performance.
Forecast models were performed through December of the fourth year. The results produced sales figures within the acceptable variance margins. The trend remains consistent, producing sales highs in January and lows in September. (see table workbook titled Ch 17 Case 1 #2,3,4 and Dummy Variable Forecasting) A summary of the predicted sales appears on workbook Assignment 3.
Based on the first three years of operation, the seasonal index IS adequate to forecast food and beverage sales for the year. The model developed in this study will allow you to insert data, and produce reliable results with 95% confidence. (see workbook titled Dummy Variable Multi Regr) By reviewing the seasonal trends food and beverage purchases can be ordered in appropriate portions to reduce waste and shortages. Additionally, restaurant budgets can incorporate this information to... [continues]
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