Credibility Of Honesty

Sartori ((2002). p122) argues that credibility relates to a state’s perceived honesty and the ability of the actor to bluff successfully. In this case Actor B judges Actor A’s credibility by assessing the previous and perceived future behaviour of Actor A. Actor B is far less likely to escalate a situation when Actor A has a reputation of following through with threats, i.e. a reputation for honesty.
Jervis argues against this and claims that credibility is not the perceived honesty of an actor due to the implications of the Domino theory Paradox. The paradox argues that a defeat in an international crisis, such as when a leader backs down, makes an actor look weaker and less credible. This will make them more likely to follow through with
The difference between different actors’ political institutions is significant when looking at credibility. There are a few reasons for this that will be discussed in this section, and will be further explored throughout the
In this case a unified democracy will appear more likely to follow through with its promises, due to the shared support of the government and the public (Levendusky, M., Horowitz, M. (2012). p324). The influence of the opposition and the public this also has the ability to work against the government when it does not have their support. In this case the lack of domestic support weakens the credibility of the leader. It is here where audience costs, the cost to the actor of making a statement to the public vis-a-vis the threat or demand, are likely to shape the leaders foreign policy and show the resolve of a leader (Tomz. M. (2007). p822). The audience cost on a leader of a democracy makes them more likely to show resolve as backing down can lead to the leader being seen as dishonest. The opposition and/or public supporting the decision can reduce the damage to a leader’s credibility if they back down (Levendusky, M., Horowitz, M. (2012). p327). When looking at the domestic situation of a democracy, credibility can either be shown through unity or lack of credibility can be shown by the lack of unity. Fearon ((1994). p578) argues that the audience costs of a democracy make it less likely for a leader to make an empty threat, as bluffing may be more costly domestically. Credibility is in some ways a measure of domestic support in a democracy as it signals the