Among the large emerging economies such as Brazil [ Images ], Russia [ Images ], Nigeria and Indonesia, it is the rise of China and India (Chindia) which will have (and already has) enormous business implications during the first half of this Century mostly beneficial to the world. First, both nations will require enormous natural resources because not only are they manufacturing and service centers of the world, but because of their own rapidly expanding domestic consumer markets. And this demand for natural and industrial resources such as oil, gas, coal, copper, bauxite, aluminum, iron and steel will be for many years.
While China today is roughly nine times as big as India, it is expected that China will very soon become an aged and affl uent nation, similar to what happened to Japan [ Images ], Singapore, Taiwan and others and will begin to plateau its economic growth. Also, it will outsource manufacturing to other nations, especially in Africa and other resource rich nations.
The rapid aging of Chinese population attributed to its one child policy implemented over two generations will impact its domestic economic growth. On the other hand, while India is at present one tenth in size of China, it will experience accelerated growth in less than ten years with better infrastructure, political reforms and fi nancial transparency.
Also, India will refocus on manufacturing both for global supply as well as for its domestic demand. Unlike China, however, India's manufacturing will be selective and largely concentrated on high-end aerospace, military, space and consumer durables including automobiles and appliances. It will begin to catch up with China and some experts even believe that its growth rate will surpass that of China. In any case, both nations with more than a billion people each, will have enormous need for industrial, agricultural and other natural resources and raw materials.
Since a vast majority of these untapped resources are in other...
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