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BAYESIAN MODELLING OF DRIVER ERROR-CAUSED TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN METRO MANILA

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BAYESIAN MODELLING OF DRIVER ERROR-CAUSED TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN METRO MANILA
BAYESIAN MODELLING OF DRIVER ERROR-CAUSED TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN
METRO MANILA

ABSRACT

Filipinos have been known to be one of the most reckless drivers in the world. The Philippine government has been continuously reminding the public to drive safely and avoid reckless driving but the lack of discipline and complete disregard of traffic rules have led wasted time to destruction of both property and life. This study aims to aid in formulating traffic road policies in the busiest roads in the Philippines, the Metro Manila, through Bayesian methods. The monthly number of road accidents due to driver error in Metro Manila was assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. With this, the researchers were able to estimate the number of human error-caused driving accidents that will occur in Metro Manila in 2013 which is 1545.4271. A predictive
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References: Andrei. (2012, February 10). Top 5 Traffic Violations by Filipino Motorists. Retrieved October 2013, from http://automotivepartsuppliers.com/top-5-traffic-violations-filipino-motorists/ Bitog, R. (2013, June 29). Human Error, Common Cause Of Road Mishaps. Retrieved October 2013, from http://www.sunstar.com.ph/baguio/local-news/2013/06/29/human-error-commoncause-road-mishaps-289807 Blanco, N. (2011, January 19). Krusada: Road Accidents. Retrieved October 2013, from http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/current-affairs-programs/01/15/11/krusada-road-accidents Crisostomo, S. (2000, May 1). Seat Belt Law Takes Effect Today. Retrieved October 2013, from http://www.philstar.com/headlines/87794/seat-belt-law-takes-effect-today Olarte, O. (2011, April). Human Error Accounts For 90% Of Road Accidents. Retrieved October 2013, from http://www.alertdriving.com/home/fleet-alert-magazine/international/human-erroraccounts-90-road-accidents Punay, E. (2011, June 4). DOJ Defines Reckless Driving. Retrieved October 2013, from http://www.philstar.com/metro/692501/doj-defines-reckless-driving
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