20150505CRM1300A mod 1 4 
What is the Evidence Base for Analyzing Crime?
Notes prepared for CRM1300 by Irvin Waller (abstracted from two key sources)1
The evidence base for analyzing crime is fraught with problems, particularly in Canada, where the evidence comes almost exclusively from Statistics Canada, which provides limited data on
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trends in administrative data on crime known to, and recorded by, police (Uniform
Crime Reports); rates of victimization from the General Social Survey but only every five years (GSS
Victimization Survey); and numbers and costs of policing and numbers of prisoners and costs of prisons (though, these data are provided only every couple of years and are published several years late. Using these sources, it is possible to piece together the following evidence-based picture of crime in Canada. It is important to note that neither Statistics Canada nor the media provide this picture, but it is increasingly reproduced in one form or another in government documents such as those recently produced in Ontario (2012) and by municipal task forces.
According to the Institute for Prevention of Crime (Waller, 2009), each year in a Canadian municipality of 1,000,000 persons, we can estimate from the GSS victimization survey and the costing data that there will be on average
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60,000 victims of assault
16,000 victims of sexual assault, and
18,000 victims of thefts from or of cars;
The resulting harm to victims will cause tangible and intangible costs equivalent to $2.5 billion, while police services will cost municipal taxpayers $250 million out of municipal property taxes (doubled in last ten years) and federal-provincial income taxpayers $100 million, and correctional services $180 million (and rising). The most publicized data concern offenses recorded by the police, which are available for a
50-year period, but have major limitations because the Statistics Canada surveys show that less than 35% of victims report to the police and it is well known that
Notes prepared for CRM1300 by Irvin Waller (abstracted from two key sources)1
The evidence base for analyzing crime is fraught with problems, particularly in Canada, where the evidence comes almost exclusively from Statistics Canada, which provides limited data on
•
•
•
trends in administrative data on crime known to, and recorded by, police (Uniform
Crime Reports); rates of victimization from the General Social Survey but only every five years (GSS
Victimization Survey); and numbers and costs of policing and numbers of prisoners and costs of prisons (though, these data are provided only every couple of years and are published several years late. Using these sources, it is possible to piece together the following evidence-based picture of crime in Canada. It is important to note that neither Statistics Canada nor the media provide this picture, but it is increasingly reproduced in one form or another in government documents such as those recently produced in Ontario (2012) and by municipal task forces.
According to the Institute for Prevention of Crime (Waller, 2009), each year in a Canadian municipality of 1,000,000 persons, we can estimate from the GSS victimization survey and the costing data that there will be on average
–
–
–
–
–
60,000 victims of assault
16,000 victims of sexual assault, and
18,000 victims of thefts from or of cars;
The resulting harm to victims will cause tangible and intangible costs equivalent to $2.5 billion, while police services will cost municipal taxpayers $250 million out of municipal property taxes (doubled in last ten years) and federal-provincial income taxpayers $100 million, and correctional services $180 million (and rising). The most publicized data concern offenses recorded by the police, which are available for a
50-year period, but have major limitations because the Statistics Canada surveys show that less than 35% of victims report to the police and it is well known that